For those who don’t understand what an El Nino is, it’s when Pacific Rim countries are subjected to radical changes in weather. The criteria’s basis is for the surface water in equatorial central Pacific water to be 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than normal during the winter months. This winter is projected to be higher.
The normal cycle is for the surface water to cool off after a couple of years because of the upwelling of cooler deep water. The problem with this El Nino is the deeper water isn’t cool; it’s warmer than ever recorded, too. The normal cycle would mean cooler surface water creating a La Nina and moderating the weather for a couple of years. Many computer programs that have been predicting this El Nino are predicting a smaller, less-moderating La Nina. If they are correct, we may be reaching the feared tipping point sooner than expected.
The reason is the concept I studied in 1969. Carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere allows the short sun’s rays to reach the surface, where they warm the surface. That heat produces long rays that are reradiated back into space. However, CO2 blocks long rays so the radiated heat is kept inside. The more CO2, the less heat escapes. It’s called the Greenhouse Effect. On a cool sunny day, we wear jackets to glass covered greenhouses and then have to take them off because of the sun-produced heat. CO2 acts like the glass.
It’s simple: The more CO2 we produce, the worse it will get. Methane from the thawing tundra is many times worse than CO2, and that’s the feared tipping point of no return.
Chuck Johnson
Morris