Hub Arkush: It’s time to talk about what Matt Nagy may not be telling us about his Bears

LAKE FOREST – At the beginning of the season, I had the Bears as a wild card contender, 9-7 or 10-6, with a chance to win 11 or 12 games if they found a quarterback.

I had the Bears at 3-2 right now, confident they’d handle Detroit, the Giants and the Bucs, but fearing the Falcons and Colts.

What we have is a 4-1 team in great shape to go deep into the playoffs . . . maybe.

We also have a club with the NFL’s 27th ranked offense, 26th in points scored and getting ready to face the closest thing to a murderer’s row on this year’s schedule.

Sunday it’s a trip to play the surprising 3-2 Panthers and after that: at the Rams, vs. the Saints, at the Titans, home vs. the Vikings and then the first meeting of the year with the Packers at Lambeau.

If the Bears just split those six games, which seems more than doable, it would leave them 7-4 with no reason they couldn’t run the table or at least take four of five finishing with Detroit, Houston, at Minnesota, at Jacksonville and Green Bay.

Remember the Bears are 9-3 vs. the NFC North under Matt Nagy.

But those next six clubs are currently 21st, 12th, 6th, 14th, 15th and 1st in points scored respectively, all substantially better than the Bears and I’m betting dollars to donuts that’s why Nagy threw down the gauntlet after the Bucs game.

Much of the focus here is on the Bears rumbling, bumbling and now stumbling running game, currently 27th in the NFL and 17th in average gain per carry.

Would it shock you to learn last season the Bears were 27th running the football although a more dismal 29th in average per carry?

It is unfair to compare five weeks to last year’s full season so we must give them these crucial next six weeks to turn the corner, and more importantly I submit it is not just the run game or just the quarterbacks that is ailing this offense right now.

I asked Nagy on Monday morning about the self-scouting he did over the weekend and specifically about whether or not the significant increase in two and three tight end packages we’ve seen to enhance the run game was impacting the passing game as well because of difficulty throwing out of those formations?

It is possible I asked the question poorly, or that Nagy either didn’t hear it all or didn’t understand it, but he didn’t answer it.

He told me the Colts and Bucs are really good against the run, “when you go into these games it is our job personnel-wise that you try to give your team the best matchup possible by personnel but also by what you are doing whether it’s run or pass” and that he has faith in the run game, knows different ways to get it back and feels good about it.

OK, but Bears are also currently 25th throwing the ball and 32nd, dead last in average gain per pass, and please forgive me for refusing to accept that is solely due to the running game not working.

The reality is the offensive line now can’t seem to block the run even with help from the tight ends, pass protection has been extremely leaky at best all season, too many 12 and 13 personnel packages force you to leave more dangerous weapons on the bench and now James Daniels who arguably has the highest ceiling of any player on that line is lost for the year.

Is the truth the Bears offense just isn’t talented enough up front, or if I’m wrong aren’t playing anywhere near their ability and that is guaranteed to make every facet of the offense struggle?

It isn’t Nagy’s, Castillo’s, Trubisky’s, Foles’ or any one guy’s fault the offense stinks.

The line isn’t playing well enough and there are no reinforcements on the way.

Even with the Bears great start and good fortune thus far this season, how far they can go from here is now squarely in the hands of the big uglies up front, how much better they can play and how quickly they can make it happen.