Bear Down, Nerd Up: What’s at stake between Bears, Packers on Sunday?

The Bears and Packers will finish out the regular season with a 3:25 p.m. matchup on Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.

This will mark the end of the 2023 season for the Bears, who are eliminated from playoff contention, but they have an opportunity to play spoiler against their arch nemesis.

Here’s a look at what’s on the line Sunday, plus some of the team records that could be in play during the season finale.

All on the line: The Packers, who enter this week’s game with an 8-8 record, can earn a Wild Card spot in the postseason with a win over the Bears. For Green Bay the path is simple: Beat the Bears and you’re in. They could be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, depending what happens between the 49ers and Rams.

If the Bears beat the Packers, The New York Times playoff model gives Green Bay about a 22% chance of still making it into the postseason. If the Bears win, the Packers still could make the postseason if the Lions beat the Vikings, the Cardinals beat the Seahawks and the Falcons beat the Saints.

For the Bears, a win Sunday would put them at 8-9 on the season. The Bears are eliminated from playoff contention, even if they beat Green Bay.

Most gambling sites had the Bears’ win/loss total at 7.5 wins prior to the season. A win would put them over that number.

The Packers have won nine consecutive games against the Bears, as well as 24 of the last 27 contests dating back to 2010. Both Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields are still looking for their first win against Green Bay.

The Bears’ last win over Green Bay came on Dec. 16, 2018, at Soldier Field. The Bears haven’t won at Lambeau Field since Nov. 26, 2015.

QB comparison: In his first season as the starter in Green Bay, quarterback Jordan Love has thrown for 3,843 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in 16 games. Both marks would be franchise records for a Bears quarterback.

Both Bears single-season marks belong to former quarterback Erik Kramer, who totaled 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns during the 1995 season. Jay Cutler nearly matched those numbers in 2014, with 3,812 passing yards and 28 touchdowns.

Fields missed four games this season due to a thumb injury, so his totals aren’t quite a fair comparison. Fields has thrown for 2,414 yards and 16 touchdowns in 12 games this season, while also running for 630 yards and four touchdowns. The Bears are 5-7 in games that Fields has started this season.

Give me Moore: At 1,300 receiving yards on the season, Bears receiver DJ Moore is now No. 5 on the franchise’s list of top receiving seasons. He is 208 yards shy of the Bears’ single-season record, set by Brandon Marshall with 1,508 yards in 2012.

A 100-yard game in the Week 18 finale could put Moore into the top three. Here are the top five Bears single-season receiving marks.

1. Brandon Marshall, 2012: 1,508 yards
2. Alshon Jeffery, 2013: 1,421 yards
3. Marcus Robinson, 1999: 1,400 yards
4. Jeff Graham, 1995: 1,301 yards
5. DJ Moore, 2023: 1,300 yards

Moore’s 1,300 yards are a career high, as are his eight touchdown receptions. Moore is well short of the single-season records for receptions and receiving touchdowns. Moore currently has 92 catches and eight touchdowns. If Moore gets to 100 receptions, that would be a top-five finish in franchise history.

The Bears record for receptions is 118, set by Marshall in 2012. Two Bears share the record for touchdown receptions, with 13. Both Ken Kavanaugh in 1947 and Dick Gordon in 1970 had 13 touchdowns.

Kicking Cairo: Bears kicker Cairo Santos went 3-for-4 on field goal tries Sunday against Atlanta. His only miss came from 55 yards as time expired on the first half. It marked just his third missed field goal of the season.

It likely cost Santos a shot at besting his own team record for single-season field goal percentage. He is currently 32-of-35 on field goals this year, or 91.4%. His 32 makes are a career high.

He set the team record by making 93.8% of his field goal tries (30 of 32) in 2020. Even if he were to go a perfect 5-for-5 during the season finale, his percentage wouldn’t beat out his 2020 percentage.

He can, however, tie or set the single-season mark for made field goals. Robbie Gould’s 33 made field goals in 2015 are the franchise record. One more make from 50 yards or beyond from Santos would tie Gould’s record of seven in a single season, which was also set in 2015.

Santos has now made 110 field goals as a member of the Bears, which ties him with Paul Edinger for fourth in team history. Gould make 276 field goals over his 11 seasons with the Bears. Santos, who recently signed a contract extension through 2027, as a long way to go if he’s going to catch that mark.