Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: 5 storylines to watch in Week 18

LAKE FOREST – The Bears and Packers will resume their historic rivalry Sunday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. This time around, the Packers need a win to reach the postseason, while the Bears are looking to play spoiler.

The Bears haven’t beaten the Packers since 2018. They haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 2015. The Packers have won 24 of the past 27 games in this series.

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus will look to end the season on a high note. A win would make it five out of the last six for Eberflus’ Bears. Quarterback Justin Fields will try to beat the Packers for the first time in his career. Could this be Fields’ final start for the Bears?

That’s one of several storylines to watch this week. The Bears (7-9) and Packers (8-8) will kick off at 3:25 p.m. Sunday. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here are the top storylines to follow.

1. What’s next for Eberflus?

Does a win on Sunday matter for Eberflus and his staff? Any time the Bears play the Packers it matters. But does it make a difference on whether Eberflus will return in 2024? Probably not.

At this point, the head coach’s resume is largely set. He engineered a turnaround from an 0-4 start to a 7-5 finish, heading into this game. It feels like Eberflus has likely done enough to secure his job for another season, although that’s not a guarantee.

“I feel really good about where this team is,” Eberflus said Friday. “This team is on the rise. I feel really good about the second half of the season, where the whole football team is going right now. I love the camaraderie and the relationships we’ve built. You could certainly see the progress. So yeah, I feel good about it.”

I feel really good about where this team is. This team is on the rise. I feel really good about the second half of the season, where the whole football team is going right now.”

—  Matt Eberflus, Bears head coach

The bigger question might be whether offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will return in 2024. While Eberflus’ defense has flourished during the second half of the season, the offense has made strides, but they’ve been much smaller than what Eberflus has done on the defensive side. Is that reason enough to move on from Getsy, who runs the offense?

A good showing against Green Bay would leave everyone with a positive impression heading into the offseason.

2. Is this Justin Fields’ last game with the Bears?

In addition to the coaching staff, questions are swirling about the quarterback position. It’s possible this is Fields’ last game as the starter of the Bears. The Bears hold the rights to the No. 1 overall draft pick. If they want to start over with a rookie at quarterback, they have the ability to do that.

It’s not impossible, but seems unlikely, that the Bears would keep Fields and take a rookie quarterback with the first pick. If they draft a QB, the Bears probably would look to trade Fields, even though he remains under contract in 2024.

Fields has had his best season as an NFL passer in 2023. In 13 games, he has thrown for 2,414 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also has run for 630 yards and four touchdowns. He has the offense playing well down the stretch, and has built a chemistry with top receiver DJ Moore.

He also has struggled against top defenses such as Cleveland’s and Kansas City’s and has made some crucial mistakes in the fourth quarter of games.

3. Playoff potential

The Packers need a win this week. A win and they’re in the playoffs. They could finish as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC, depending on what happens between the Rams and 49ers.

A Bears win doesn’t completely eliminate the Packers, but they would need several other results to go their way in order to make the playoffs. The Packers then would need the Lions to beat the Vikings, the Falcons to beat the Saints and the Cardinals to beat the Seahawks.

This will be a nice bookend to the season for the Bears, who were smacked in Week 1 against the Packers, losing 38-20 at Soldier Field. Rebounding to keep the Packers out of the playoffs in Week 18 would be a perfect full-circle moment.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love, in his first season as the starter, has thrown for more yards and touchdowns over 16 games than any Bears player has thrown in a single season. Love has thrown for 3,843 yards and 30 touchdown passes during the 2023 season. Former Bears quarterback Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns in 1995, which remain franchise single-season records.

4. More takeaways coming?

The Bears’ defense has been a takeaway machine over the second half of the season. The Bears had four more interceptions last week against Atlanta. They have three or more takeaways in five of the past six games, and that’s a big reason why the team is winning football games over that stretch. The Bears lead the NFL with 22 interceptions and a 3.8% interception rate.

Love likes to air out the ball. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Love ranks eighth in the league in intended air yards on average, which measures how far a QB throws the ball beyond the line of scrimmage. He got into trouble early in the season, throwing 10 interceptions during the first nine games.

But over the past seven games, Love has thrown only one interception, compared with 16 touchdown passes. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 262 passing yards per game and has lost only two fumbles. The Packers are 5-2 during that time.

“Balls come out on time,” Bears linebackers coach Dave Borgonzi said. “[He] does a really good job moving in the pocket. Really distributes the ball well to his receivers and the backs.”

This Bears’ defense, however, is much different than the defense Love saw in Week 1. Pro Bowl pass rusher Montez Sweat wasn’t here the first time they played.

5. Plan of attack

Teams have found success running the football against Green Bay. The Packers rank 28th among NFL teams against the run, allowing 131.6 rushing yards per game. On the flip side, the Bears’ rushing attack ranks second in the league with 145.3 rushing yards per game.

In Week 1, the Bears ran for 122 yards on 29 attempts. Fields led the rushing attack with 59 yards. Fields is coming off one of his best games as a pro last week against Atlanta. He had several wild escapes from danger inside the pocket that led to big runs. If he continues to do that, he will give the Packers defense fits.

Bears running back Khalil Herbert is questionable for Sunday’s game because of a back injury. If Herbert can’t go, running backs D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson likely would take on bigger roles.

The Bears could lean heavily on that run game. In the passing game, the Packers’ defense likes to play zone, which presents a different challenge from what the Bears saw last week against Atlanta. Moore is not likely to see as many one-on-one matchups as he did a week ago.