Bear Down, Nerd Up: Just how bad is the Chicago Bears running game right now?

Sunday was supposed to be the game where the Chicago Bears figured things out in the run game. They were going up against the worst-rated run defense in terms of rushing yards allowed through the first two games.

Instead, running back D’Andre Swift and the Bears couldn’t do anything against the Colts. Quarterback Caleb Williams was forced to throw the football 52 times. The Bears ran for only 63 rushing yards.

So how bad has the run game really been through the first three games? Here’s what the stats and analytics have to say about it.

Not so Swift

Through the first two weeks, the offensive line was bad, but the underlying analytics suggested that it wasn’t terrible at run blocking. Per ESPN Analytics, the Bears were the 17th-ranked offensive line in run blocking “win rate.” That’s perfectly average in a 32-team league.

Could the run blocking be better? Definitely. Is it the worst in the league? ESPN’s analytics suggested it’s not.

The numbers for Swift, however, are pretty atrocious.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Swift ranks dead last among all NFL players in rushing EPA through three games [note: all rankings here are prior to Monday night’s doubleheader]. Expected points added puts a value to every play, similar to wins above replacement in baseball. Swift’s minus 21 EPA per rush is worst among 50 qualified runners.

His minus 83 rush yards over expected [which predicts how many yards a ball carrier should pick up based on where the defenders are] is also dead last. He’s spending an average of 3.04 seconds behind the line of scrimmage when he takes a handoff. That’s the sixth-most time behind the line of scrimmage among all running backs. His 68 yards after contact rank 37th among all rushers.

Swift’s efficiency rating on Next Gen Stats is second-worst in the NFL [behind only Arizona’s Trey Benson]. That suggests he spends a lot more energy moving left to right, rather than north to south.

As a team, the Bears are running inside the offensive tackles 36% of the time, and 61% of their rushes are out wide. Only six teams have run between the tackles at a lower rate than the Bears.

Certainly the offensive line matters in all of this. If the running back is getting met by defenders in the backfield, he’s going to spend a lot more time moving left or right. A year ago, Swift ranked 10th in the NFL in efficiency while running behind the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line.

So which player is he? Probably somewhere in between.

Interestingly, Bears backup running back Roschon Johnson ranked ninth among all ball carriers in Week 3 with 2.0 expected points added per rush. Swift was minus 9.9 in the same game behind the same O-line. Now, Johnson saw only eight carries, and that sample size is far too small to put any real weight behind.

But it makes you wonder.

Time to throw update

Last week in this space, I spent a lot of time talking about how Caleb Williams had no time to throw. The numbers were much better in Week 3.

Against the Colts, Williams had an average of 2.82 seconds to throw, ninth most among QBs prior to Monday night’s games. He faced 14 pressures. That sounds like a lot, but it’s not when considering he dropped back to pass 56 times. His 25% pressure rate was among the best in the league in Week 3.

Simply put, the Bears protected him much more effectively against the Colts. Williams’ 363 passing yards were the most ever by a Bears rookie quarterback.

Record setter

Bears 40-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis appeared in his 271st career NFL game Sunday. It tied longtime Cowboys tight end Jason Witten for the most all time by an NFL tight end.

In Sunday’s game, Lewis surpassed Tony Gonzalez, who appeared in 270 NFL games.

Lewis entered the league as a first-round draft pick in 2006. He will set the tight end record Sunday against the Rams at Soldier Field.

Rome’s century mark

Rome Odunze became the first Bears rookie to surpass 100 receiving yards since Anthony Miller had 122 yards during a game in 2018. Odunze finished with 112 receiving yards and one touchdown on six catches.

Williams kept airing it out to find Odunze. Odunze’s 21.3 air yards per target was second most in the NFL in Week 3 behind only Green Bay’s Christian Watson. That’s among 142 players [prior to Monday].

His 16.4 air yards per target on the season rank sixth among NFL receivers. Odunze was a deep ball threat during his college career at Washington, and that’s exactly how the Bears are using him so far.