Hub Arkush: Key matchups, players to watch and more for Bears vs. Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a 1-13 football team that has already fired its general manager, head coach Doug Marrone is certain to get canned on Black Monday if not sooner, “Minshew Mania” is no longer a thing and the Jags are currently in possession of the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, certain to be Trevor Lawrence, who many believe is the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning.

In short, Jacksonville has more to gain by losing to the Bears than beating them so what is there for Bears fans to worry about?

The Jets couldn’t beat the Rams and the Bengals couldn’t beat the Steelers either until they did just last weekend.

While the Bears have been much better the last two weeks, they aren’t good enough to just show up and throw their hats on the field and beat any NFL team. There is some talent in Jacksonville, enough that if they don’t take this one as seriously as the must-win it is for them, they will get beat.

MATCHUP TO WATCH

Jaguars Wide Receivers vs. Bears Secondary

It is unusual in today’s NFL for a team’s top four receivers to all be wideouts but that is the case in Jacksonville with D.J. Chark Jr., Keelan Cole Sr., Laviska Shenault Jr. and Chris Conley ranking one through four.

Running back James Robinson, a Rockford native and Illinois St. alum, is their top offensive threat, but his status for Sunday is uncertain as he battles an ankle injury. If he can’t go or is limited, Jacksonville will have no choice but to try and attack the secondary with their receivers all day long, and the status of Jaylon Johnson, Buster Skrine and Deon Bush remains uncertain as well.

COACHING DECISION TO WATCH

Will Chuck Pagano stay aggressive or revert to dropping seven or eight?

The Bears have notched 11 of their 33 sacks on the season in the last two games and they have come as Pagano has called more blitzes, stunts and games up front.

While the Bears will never go blitz crazy, Gardner Minshew is still a very young quarterback who won’t respond well to pressure. But he is also very productive with his legs, averaging 5.3 yards a pop on the 29 times he’s left the pocket.

Look for Pagano to use the blitz more but be very cautious about getting carried away and caught in it.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

RBs James Robinson and David Montgomery

Robinson is a serious candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year with 1,070 rushing yards, a 4.5 average, seven TDs and another 344 yards receiving and three TDs. If the ankle allows him to play, he will be the focal point of the Jaguar offense, and if the Bears can stop him, they can stop the Jaguars. He’s not a special home-run threat, but he’ll come at you all day long.

If Robinson can’t go, Jacksonville doesn’t have another running back on the roster with more than seven carries this year.

Jacksonville is 30th in the league against the run, so while Montgomery probably won’t get 32 carries again this week, the Bears offense is almost certain to revolve around him again.

THE X-FACTORS

LBs Joe Schobert, Myles Jack; Focus, Concentration

Schobert and Jack are the Jaguars’ leading tacklers, and while neither is special, they are good football players who will be stout against the run when they get help and will make the occasional big play. If you’re not hearing their names called a lot Sunday you’ll know Jacksonville is in trouble.

As long as the Bears don’t lose sight of what’s at stake they should be fine but if they take anything for granted...

WILD-CARD PLAYERS WHO COULD SURPRISE

Minshew and Chark

Minshew is no longer the future in Jacksonville but he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – he’s thrown just five picks in nine games – and he can get hot and get on a roll.

Chark is a very promising young receiver with a 51-yarder to his credit this year and he can get over the top and make big plays if not watched closely.

THE FINAL WORD

Bears 31, Jaguars 17

The Jaguars aren’t going to lay down, but with more to lose than gain by winning and really nothing left to play for this year, it’s hard to imagine them rising up and pulling the upset here.

Fears about the Bears looking past them are reasonable but seem unlikely with the horror of their six-game losing streak still very fresh in their minds. This one should look a lot like the Texans game two weeks ago.