Hub Arkush: Pulling off a trade for a star QB doesn’t guarantee success, as the Bears already know

There have been huge quarterback trades before.

First-ballot Hall of Famers such as Joe Montana, John Elway and Brett Favre were dealt. Jim Plunkett, Carson Palmer, Jeff George and Rick Mirer also come to mind.

All of these deals have one of three things in common.

Either the player’s value was as yet an unknown, they failed to live up to their prospects early in their careers and teams were anxious to cut their losses, or the player in spite of an outstanding career was nearing the end and their clubs were anxious to get something in return.

This is pertinent today because there is trade speculation surrounding three of the best QBs in the game: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson.

But while both Rodgers and Stafford could check one of the three boxes involved in every other big-time QB deal, there is only one quarterback trade in history that would mirror the circumstances surrounding a Watson trade.

Irony of ironies, that deal was made by the Bears in 2009, when they acquired Jay Cutler, and a large segment of their fan base is now apoplectic in the belief the club must pay whatever it takes to get Watson.

It is more than just symbolic that the Cutler trade came the day after April Fool’s Day.

NFL teams don’t trade 25-year old Pro Bowl quarterbacks, but there is far more forcing comparisons of Cutler and Watson.

Cutler asked out of Denver because he was unhappy new coach Josh McDaniels had tried to trade for Matt Cassel without talking to him about it, and Watson reportedly is unhappy because the Texans hired new general manager Nick Caserio without consulting him.

Just before dealing Cutler, Broncos owner Pat Bowlen released a statement saying both he and McDaniels had been unable to get Cutler to call them back during the past 10 days.

Texans owner Cal McNair claims he tried unsuccessfully to reach Watson for days before Watson finally texted him.

It does matter that Cutler was viewed as a bit of a punk before his trade flap, while Watson mostly is admired.

But what if the Bears trade for Watson and then don’t do enough to save Pace’s and/or Nagy’s jobs?

Would Watson again demand to be part of the search for their replacements, and what if, unhappy with the final choice, he demanded to move again in spite of the king’s ransom the Bears certainly would have given up to acquire him?

Everyone knows how Cutler worked out in Chicago.

In addition to Kyle Orton, with the two first-round picks and third-round pick the Broncos got from the Bears, they acquired edge rusher Robert Ayers, cornerback Alphonso Smith and tight end Richard Quinn.

Ayers was a decent player in Denver who never lived up to his first-round status and after only 12 sacks in five seasons moved on to the Giants. Smith was such a disappointment as a rookie that Denver dealt him to Detroit after one season. Quinn was a flat-out bust.

The Broncos were 20-28 the next three seasons before being forced to win a free agent bidding war for Peyton Manning.

Although Cutler did lead the Bears to an NFC title game in 2010, it was their only playoff appearance with him, and character issues dogged him and the Bears throughout his eight seasons in Chicago. The franchise still is trying to recover.

Also, although Watson does not appear to be the problem child Cutler was, there is at least one other “minor detail” the Bears might want to consider before dealing for Watson.

At 25, he already has torn the ACL in both of his knees, and he is the most sacked quarterback in the game since entering the NFL.

Watson appears to be a safer character risk than Cutler, but although he has a different skill set, he is not a bigger talent than Cutler was at the same stage.

History and everything we know about the NFL argues that the Texans would be nearly insane to deal Watson, and the Bears might want to at least consider learning from history and analyzing the cost of pushing their next three or four drafts into the pot in pursuit of him.