What might a Jaylon Johnson extension look like for the Chicago Bears?

Some big decisions are looming for Bears general manager Ryan Poles.

While free agency and the draft are the biggest priorities on his doorstep, several of the Bears’ young star players are nearing the end of their rookie contracts. Discussions surrounding contract extensions are coming in the near future.

Cornerback Jaylon Johnson is one such player. The Bears drafted Johnson in the second round (50th overall) in 2020.

Cornerback is a tough position to quantify because it’s not as easy as looking at the stats on the offensive side of the ball. You really have to dive into the tape in order to compare cornerbacks. Interceptions can be somewhat random.

But this much at least appears true: The highest-paid cornerbacks in the NFL find ways to make plays on the ball. For Johnson, who has one career interception and two forced fumbles in three seasons, that could work against him.

Production comparison

Below is a rough comparison between Johnson and several cornerbacks who earned contracts in recent years.

Some notes to keep in mind:

• Pro Football Reference didn’t track completion percentage against until 2018, so Adoree’ Jackson’s figure does not include his rookie season in 2017.
• Jaire Alexander’s contract set the market for cornerbacks last offseason. I included that for reference, not because I think Johnson is going to get something similar. Only three cornerbacks in the league currently are making more than $20 million per season: Alexander, the Browns’ Denzel Ward and the Rams’ Jalen Ramsey.
• Jackson missed most of the 2020 season with a knee injury. Alexander missed 13 games in 2021 with a shoulder injury, but still signed his extension the following offseason.

Maybe the most apt comparison for Johnson, statistically, is Jackson. Like Johnson, Jackson did not create a ton of turnovers during his four-year rookie contract with Tennessee. He also missed almost an entire season in 2020. None of that precluded him from signing a three-year, $39 million contract with the New York Giants when he hit the open market as a free agent in March 2021.

One big reason why Johnson hasn’t created a ton of turnovers is because during both 2021 and 2022, he was far and away the team’s best cornerback. Opponents preferred to pick on other defensive backs in the Bears’ secondary. If Kyler Gordon keeps ascending, that will make it harder for opponents to pick their poison.

The Bears clearly value Johnson as a No. 1 cornerback. Looking beyond the numbers at the tape, he held his own against many of the top receivers across the league, even if it’s hard to see it in the stat line. He’s the Bears’ best cornerback and he’s probably worth $13-15 million per season on the open market.

Wear and tear

Johnson has dealt with his share of injuries. A shoulder injury cut his rookie season short by a few games in 2020. He missed only two games in 2021, but then missed six in 2022 with quad, rib and finger injuries.

Salary cap implications

The Bears have $94 million in available salary cap space in 2023. An extension wouldn’t hit the books until 2024, when the Bears have $170 million in projected cap space. For Poles, signing core players to extensions is not going to cause too much concern until a few years down the road. Cornerback is one of the “premium positions” in Poles’ mind, along with pass rushers and offensive linemen. Those are positions where it’s worth investing money.

Johnson will never be cheaper than he is right now. If the Bears wait and Johnson has a tremendous 2023 season with a handful of interceptions, his price is only going to go up.

Why it’s a good fit

The only player the Bears are spending significant money on defensively is Eddie Jackson, who has two more seasons on his contract. The Bears have the cap space to get a deal done with Johnson. They have a chance to lock up a young, ascending No. 1 cornerback at a reasonable price. They won’t have to give Gordon a raise for several years, and they can build around that one-two punch at cornerback.

Johnson never has been shy about wanting to get paid. Since his rookie season he has mentioned wanting to get a second contract during interviews. From the player perspective, it often makes sense to take a deal as soon as possible. If, however, Johnson believes he is worth the $20 million annual salary that some of the league’s top corners make, he likely would have to play out the 2023 season to prove it. If a deal were to get done before the season, it’s probably more in the range of three years, $45 million, with about $25 million guaranteed.