Chicago Bears enter Week 1 as touchdown underdog against San Francisco 49ers

It is officially game week, as Year 1 of the Matt Eberflus era is set to begin on Sunday when the Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field.

This year’s opener is a rematch of a Week 8 battle from last season, when the 49ers didn’t take the lead until the fourth quarter in an eventual 33-22 victory. The 49ers scored 18 points in the final frame to stave off the road upset.

Oddsmakers believe the 49ers will take care of business again. The Bears are currently a seven-point underdog at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. But what’s really interesting is the Bears closed as a 4.5-point underdog in this exact matchup in 2021.

So what has changed?

For one, the 49ers ended the year on a high note. They won nine of their next 12 games after that win in Chicago and ended up in the NFC Championship game. The 49ers were actually one half away from being the betting favorite in the Super Bowl, but ultimately surrendered their lead in the second half of a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

The Kyle Shanahan offense has been handed over to second-year quarterback Trey Lance, who is tasked with getting this team over the hump. Jimmy Garoppolo managed to record two rushing touchdowns in last year’s meeting with the Bears, and he doesn’t even have the dual-threat ability that Lance has. Lance averaged 4.4 yards per run on 38 attempts during his rookie campaign.

Second-year quarterback Justin Fields started this game for the Bears last year and delivered some of the biggest highlights of the day. He completed 19-of-27 passes for 175 yards while adding 103 yards and one score on 10 rushing attempts. Fields’ rushing touchdown came on a fourth-down conversion, where he quite literally made something out of nothing.

The Bears have changed a lot since these two teams last met. They have a new coaching staff and a new GM making roster decisions. They are committed to a rebuild after losing Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Allen Robinson while going with a younger roster this year. That all explains why expectations are much different for the Bears compared to the 49ers entering the season.

But this is one game, and the first game at that. I think the betting odds might have overreacted in this case. San Francisco could very well end up as one of the better teams in the NFC, but this spread seems to be too many points when you compare it to last year’s meeting.

I will hold out hope that we see a 7.5 pop up at some point this week, but I plan to take the points with the Bears ahead of this weekend. I think this game ends up being a lot closer than the betting odds would indicate.