Bears-49ers odds: Why we’re leaning to bet the under

Football returns this weekend when the Chicago Bears play host to the San Francisco 49ers for Week 1 of the 2022-23 NFL season on Sunday at Soldier Field. Kickoff is slated for noon for the first regular-season game under the new Bears’ regime.

I broke this game down from a spread perspective on Tuesday and explained why I’m taking the points in what is a rematch from last year’s tilt in Week 8. The point total, meanwhile, is currently set at 41.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.

These two teams cleared the over in last year’s meeting, in which the 49ers scored 18 points in the fourth quarter of an eventual 33-22 victory over the Bears. In last year’s matchup, the closing total ended up set at 40.

It is actually pretty interesting that the point total is 1.5 points higher than the 2021 version of this matchup, especially when you consider the questions surrounding both teams from an offensive perspective.

Starting with the Bears, it is no secret that expectations are low on this squad entering Year 1 of the Matt Eberflus era. Pro Football Focus ranked the Bears’ offensive line 31st back in June while the receiver room leaves a lot to be desired as well. Second-year quarterback Justin Fields will have his work cut out for him while learning a new system.

On the other side, the 49ers are turning the keys to their offense over to second-year quarterback Trey Lance. His dual-threat ability could provide something new to this scheme, but it would make sense to see some growing pains early on. Lance only attempted 71 passes in five games as a rookie last year and he only played in one game in 2020. So, the last time Lance truly got an extended run as a starting quarterback was during his sophomore campaign with North Dakota State in 2019.

These offenses were fairly efficient in last year’s meeting, though the 49ers didn’t take the lead until the fourth quarter. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo managed to record two rushing touchdowns, while Fields made arguably the play of the game with his TD run on fourth down.

But I would be surprised if both offenses were able to find the same level of success in this year’s battle. I make this total closer to 40, meaning my initial lean on this game would be to take the under.

I’m not rushing to bet it just yet, but I do think it is more likely that the opener ends up being an ugly 20-14 finish rather than an offensive showcase.