2022 NFL Predictions: Picking the Super Bowl champ, playoff teams and award winners

Now that the first day of the NFL season has finally arrived, these final hours before kickoff of the Rams-Bills showdown will seemingly take forever.

To help pass the time, I have decided to release my official predictions for the entire 2022-23 NFL season. From the biggest award races to this year’s Super Bowl champion, I’m taking a stance before the season gets underway. Feel free to roast some of these picks at a later date.

For all these predictions, I will list the betting odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports. You can sign up today to place real money on some of these picks — just make sure to use their new-user offer to get your risk-free $1,250 bet.

MVP

This year’s regular-season MVP will be none other than Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Hand up, I fully expected to fade the Bengals entering the season. They were on the right side of a lot of coin-flip games during their magical postseason run after ranking 17th in overall DVOA, a metric created by Football Outsiders to help us quantify teams.

But the market soured on this team too much, as the Bengals are no longer even favored to win their own division. And that sets up for Burrow to generate plenty of MVP buzz if he leads the Bengals to another strong season.

Burrow posted the highest Pro Football Focus grade (91.8) among quarterbacks last season and had a passer rating of 110.7 when playing from a clean pocket. The Bengals bolstered their offensive line in the offseason, so Burrow should have more opportunities to get the ball to his talented playmakers.

Pick: Joe Burrow (+1300)

Offensive Player of the Year

He’s chalky for a reason, but receiver Justin Jefferson is set to have a big year with the Minnesota Vikings.

Jefferson caught 108 balls for 1,616 yards and 10 touchdowns during his second season in the league last year. Since entering the NFL, only Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel have managed to produce more yards per route run than Jefferson. Adams is the only receiver with a higher PFF grade than Jefferson.

Jefferson might already be the best receiver in the league, but he certainly has a chance to prove it under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell.

Pick: Justin Jefferson

Defensive Player of the Year

With a trio of Pro Bowl appearances his last three years, Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns seems long overdue to win DPOY.

It is hard to win this award when competing against Aaron Donald, but Garrett has recorded double-digit sacks in each of his last four seasons. Last year, Garrett finished with the highest overall defensive grade and pash rushing grade among edge defenders via PFF.

At +750 to win the award, Garrett enters the season just behind co-favorites Donald and T.J. Watt. It makes sense that this year’s DPOY winner will come from that group.

Pick: Myles Garrett (+750)

Comeback Player of the Year

New Orleans quarterback Jameis Winston is second in odds to win Comeback Player of the Year, but he’s the obvious pick for this market.

Winston led the Saints to a 5-2 clip through seven games last year before he tore his MCL in Week 8. Winston threw for 1,170 yards and 14 touchdowns, but has room to put up even better numbers during his third year with the organization.

A non-quarterback has not won this award since Keenan Allen did so in 2017, and typically a player has to come back from some sort of injury to claim this trophy. Winston checks all those boxes.

Pick: Jameis Winston (+500)

Coach of the Year

Nine of the last 10 winners for this award have led their respective team to double-digit wins, the lone exception being Bruce Arians in 2012 when he guided the Indianapolis Colts to a 9-3 clip as an interim head coach. Per sportsoddshistory.com, none of these coaches were on teams with a double-digit win total in the preseason.

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley might be the favorite, but history would suggest he can’t win this award. That’s why I’m picking Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson, who is second in betting odds at Caesars Sportsbook, to win this award.

I believe the Jaguars will be the surprise team this season. Former No. overall pick Trevor Lawrence should take a big leap in a new system, and the door is open to do some damage in a weak division. Teams go from worst-to-first all the time, as we saw with the Bengals last year, so don’t overlook the Jaguars in 2022.

Pick: Doug Pederson (+1500)

Playoff Teams

AFC

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Buffalo Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

5. Los Angeles Chargers

6. Baltimore Ravens

7. Miami Dolphins

NFC

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. Minnesota Vikings

6. New Orleans Saints

7. Arizona Cardinals

Conference Championship

AFC: Chiefs over Bills

With everybody backing the Bills this year, it feels like people have forgotten that the Chiefs were one half away winning another AFC crown. I certainly didn’t, because I bought low on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl last year and will be looking for an opportunity to do the same this season.

There might be an adjustment period with all the new faces at the receiver position, but the Chiefs will eventually hit their stride and be the team to beat in the AFC once again.

NFC: Packers over Buccaneers

The Packers have not made it to the Super Bowl since winning it all in 2010 and they do over-perform in the regular season nearly every year. But there is something to be said for the Packers knocking on the door this much, so this is the group that finally breaks through.

It will be hard to replace Davante Adams, but something tells me Matt LaFluer and Aaron Rodgers will figure it out. Per Statmuse, Rodgers has a passer rating of 112.7 to go along with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions in 11 games without Adams since the talented receiver entered the league in 2014.

Super Bowl

We finally get the Aaron Rodgers-Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl in my prediction for the upcoming season. Sign me up for the top-two quarterbacks in the league squaring off in Glendale, Arizona next February.

In the end, I’m going to side with Mahomes and the Chiefs to prevail. There is a lot to like about what the Chiefs did in the offseason, and it will eventually lead to fielding a more complete team that is built to be a perennial contender.

That’s good news for the Chiefs, but bad news for the rest of the league.

Pick: Chiefs over Packers