Thursday Night Football odds preview: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals trends and prediction

By Mark Kern

September 28, 2022 at 9:58 am CDT

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) aims a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee )

Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) aims a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee ) (Wilfredo Lee/AP)

The Cincinnati Bengals, fresh off their first win of the season, will look to knock off the lone undefeated team in the AFC, the Miami Dolphins.

Miami has been in two of the most thrilling games thus far in the NFL, knocking off the Ravens two weeks ago and the Bills this past Sunday in dramatic fashion. Against Buffalo, the Dolphins were down 17-14 in the fourth quarter before Chase Edmonds scored a 3-yard rushing touchdown to take the lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The Bengals got the offense going in the win against the Jets, as eight players had one catch. Leading the way receiving for Cincinnati was Tyler Boyd, who finished with four catches, 105 yards and a touchdown. The defensive unit has gotten things figured out as well, as the Bengals haven’t allowed a touchdown in the last seven quarters of play (the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in first quarter).

Caesars Sportsbook has listed the Bengals as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Time/TV: 7:15 p.m. Thursday, Amazon Prime

Point spread (from Caesars Sportsbook): Cincinnati -3.5

Money line: Dolphins +158, Cincinnati -190

Over/under: 47

Analysis: The Dolphins were expected to be explosive this season with Mike McDaniel, and so far, that has been the case. Entering Week 4, Tua Tagovailoa ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (925, behind Josh Allen’s 1,014), while wide receivers Jaylen Waddle (342 receiving yards, second) and Tyreek Hill (317 receiving yards, third) are both ranked in the Top five.

Like Miami, the Bengals were also expected to have one of the elite offenses in the NFL, but turnovers really doomed the team the first two games. Burrow had an especially tough start, throwing five interceptions in two weeks, including four against the Steelers in a season-opening overtime loss. However, he looked like his old self against the Jets, as he threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns.

With two explosive offenses, this has the makings of a shootout. Add the fact that Hill is already speaking about his rivalry with Eli Apple to the media, points should be fast and furious. The over looks like a very intriguing play, and this game could come down to which team has the ball last.

Prediction: Cincinnati 35, Miami 27

Must be 21 or older to gamble. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)