Bears QB Justin Fields’ passing yards prop: It’s too low and here’s why

Oddsmakers continue to have low expectations for Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields.

Fields had what was believed to be the lowest passing yardage prop in history last week, when he had an over/under of 146.5 passing yards. Fields cleared that mark by the end of the third quarter, finishing with a season-high 173 passing yards in a 20-12 loss to the New York Giants.

The trading team at Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports, has adjusted for this week’s game — but not by a whole lot. Fields currently has a passing yardage prop of 163.5, with each side being juiced to -117. That means you would have to bet $117 to win $100 on either the over or under.

I’ve been watching this prop closely since it opened at 166.5 Friday morning, and it got as low as 162.5 at one point. But I’ll happily take the over at the current price, because I think Fields is primed for another outing of at least 170 passing yards.

Fields has only come close to this total once so far this season, which just so happened to be last week. Fields finished with a season-high in completions (11), attempts (22) and yards (174) against the Giants.

It is a sign of Fields earning more responsibility within this new offense, but I believe this could be his best game yet. Earlier this week, I wrote about why this matchup could allow the Bears’ offense to produce, and a lot of that will fall on Fields’ shoulders.

The Vikings are vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, as evidenced by Andy Dalton throwing for 236 yards in a 28-25 thriller in London. Only seven teams in the entire league have surrendered more passing yards than the Vikings thus far.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Vikings don’t have a single player with a grade higher than 68 in the secondary so far this season. They have given up an average of 6.0 yards per play through four weeks. While the Vikings are 3-1, it is clear the defense has taken a step back in the post-Mike Zimmer era.

In a lot of ways, the Bears should be expected to show signs of life on offense this weekend. It is why I’ve bet their team total over and why I’m playing Fields’ passing prop this week. But there are also other avenues for the latter play to hit.

The Vikings are favored by 7.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook, so there is a way for the passing prop to hit in a potential blowout. If the Bears do get down, they will likely have to abandon the run game and that could allow Fields to throw more than he has all season.

Either way, I’m comfortable adding Fields’ passing prop to the card this weekend.

Pick: Over 163.5 passing yards for Justin Fields (-117)