Chicago Bulls win total set at 42.5 entering 2022-23 season, can we take the over?

Real basketball will start for the Chicago Bulls next week.

The Bulls ended the preseason on a three-game win streak to conclude the exhibition slate with a 3-1 record. That should give this Eastern Conference squad plenty of confidence entering the 2022-23 campaign, which officially begins in Miami at 6:30 p.m. Wednesday.

But oddsmakers still aren’t quite sold on the Bulls, who have a regular-season win total of 42.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. The under is actually juiced to -125, while the over is priced at -105. Sign up with Caesars Sportsbook today to place a bet on the win total before next week’s opener.

Eight different teams in the Eastern Conference have a higher regular-season win total than the Bulls entering the year. The Boston Celtics (53.5), Milwaukee Bucks (52.5), Philadelphia 76ers (51.5), Brooklyn Nets (50.5), Miami Heat (48.5), Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5), Toronto Raptors (47.5) and Atlanta Hawks (46.5) are all expected to finish with more wins in the regular season.

It is safe to say that oddsmakers believe the Bulls will take a step back after finishing with a 46-36 overall record en route to a No. 6 seed a season ago. A big reason why is because the team will be without Lonzo Ball to begin the year, as he remains sidelined with a knee injury.

Still, there might be an argument that the market adjusted a bit too much.

The Bulls had this exact win total (42.5) entering last season, according to the database at sportsoddshistory.com. They cleared the win total by Game No. 74, thanks to a 27-13 start to the season before losing Ball in mid-January. The Bulls went 19-23 from there, sliding from first to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings.

Per this article from Brandon Gdula of Numberfire, the Bulls’ over is one of their favorite bets entering the season. Numberfire’s model views the Bulls’ average win output as 43.1 across thousands of season simulations.

Gdula wrote in the article that their numbers project the Bulls to be considered at least 60% favorites in 23 games and at least 40% likely to win in another 34. That means the Bulls should have 57 winnable games on their schedule, suggesting the over might be the better bet.

I tend to agree with that assessment.

The Eastern Conference is better than it was last year, and the Bulls struggled against the best teams in the conference. But with better health and a leap from someone like Patrick Williams, the Bulls should be able to win enough games to remain frisky without Ball.

Bet: Over 42.5 wins for Bulls

Recent win total results for Bulls

2021-22: Bulls finish 46-36 (Win total: 42.5 - Over)

2020-21: Bulls finish 31-41 (Win total: 29.5 - Over)

2019-20: Bulls finish 22-43 (Win total: 33.5 - VOID)

2018-19: Bulls finish 22-60 (Win total: 30 - Under

2017-18: Bulls finish 27-55 (Win total: 22 - Over)

2016-17: Bulls finish 41-41 (Win total: 39 - Over)