Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan: Betting against season trends with this total pick

The Northern Illinois University football team will be desperately looking to get back in the win column this weekend against Eastern Michigan.

The Huskies have dropped five in a row since defeating Eastern Illinois in the season opener, which includes a 52-32 loss to Toledo last weekend. NIU is 1-5 on the year, including 0-2 in league play.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports, at least gives the Huskies a chance this weekend. Northern Illinois is a 2.5-point underdog in a road matchup with Eastern Michigan (4-2) at Caesars Sportsbook, while the total is listed at a whopping 67.5 combined points.

NIU hasn’t fared well on the gridiron this year, but there have been plenty of opportunities to win bets on this team. We are actually 5-1 when betting on NIU games this season, and the over has been even more profitable.

According to this tweet from Brad Powers, the over has hit in all six Northern Illinois contests this season — and by a comfortable margin. The over has hit by an average of 12 points per game, which includes last week’s game against Toledo when there were 84 combined points scored to smash the total of 60.

NIU’s defense has obviously played its part in cashing over tickets, as that unit ranks 125th in all of college football by giving up an average of 38.3 points per game. No other team in college football is 6-0 to the over midway through this season.

I made to sure to mention all this because I’m playing an under in this week’s NIU game. At 67.5, this is the highest total we have seen in a Northern Illinois game by over four points and I’m willing to bet against that kind of movement.

Pro Football Focus projects this total to be 65.9 points, which gives us more than a point of value on the under. I think it could be a bit more comfortable than that on Saturday.

The lone blemish on my record this season is another under, so obviously this pick does make me a bit nervous. But it is unlikely that NIU will finish the year with a 12-0 clip on the point total, and I don’t feel as confident about taking a side in this one.

Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Saturday.

Bet: Under 67.5 points (-110)

How our NIU picks have fared in 2022

Week 1 vs. Eastern Illinois: Over 53 points — Win

Week 2 at Tulsa: Northern Illinois +6 — Win

Week 3 vs. Vanderbilt: Under 59.5 points — Loss

Week 4 at Kentucky: Over 52.5 points — Win

Week 5 at Ball State: Ball State +4.5 — Win

Week 6 vs. Toledo: Toledo -4.5 — Win