SMU vs. UCF odds, pick for Wednesday night

Odds for SMU vs. UCF are available at Caesars Sportsbook. New Illinois betters can use our promo code for a first-time user offer. SMU and UCF kick off at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, October 5 on ESPN2.

This is the first Wednesday college football game of the season (of course, we’re looking forward as always to MACtion come early November). The date of this game has been changed twice because of Hurricane Ian.

After a quick 2-0 start to the season, SMU has run into a brick wall the past two weeks, with losses to Maryland and TCU. The SMU offense has been stellar, though, averaging 38.5 points a game through four weeks, which is good for 22nd in the nation. The Mustangs are ninth in the country in yards per game at 506.2.

Meanwhile, Central Florida is 3-1 with its only loss coming to Louisville. Its offense is nearly as explosive as SMU’s, averaging 482.5 yards per game, good for 16th in the country.

Both teams also excel at keeping drives alive. SMU is 11th in the country at third-down conversions, converting 51.5% of its third downs. UCF is 32nd, converting 46.2% of third downs.

Where these two teams are weakest is stopping the run. UCF ranks 70th in rushing defense, giving up 143.2 yards per game.

SMU is even worse at 105th in the country, giving up 180.5 yards per game. That could be the difference in the game tonight, as UCF has the nation’s third-ranked rushing attack, with 275.8 yards per game.

Pick UCF -2.5: This is a tough call. If it’s +3, we almost want to lean SMU, but at +2.5, we’ll take the team that can control the game on the ground.