Illinois Valley county clerks spot on with their voter turnout predictions

Mother Nature proved no match for local county clerks. Though severe weather disrupted poll activity Tuesday, the clerks’ voter turnout predictions were right on the money.

Jennifer Ebner is La Salle County clerk and Tuesday was the first election she supervised. She guessed turnout would fall between 17% and 22% and she nailed it. Not counting unreturned absentee and mail-in votes, turnout came to 21.2%.

I was kind of impressed.

—  Tina Dolder, Putnam County clerk on Tuesday's election turnout

The prize for beating pre-election estimates, however, goes to Tina Dolder, Putnam County clerk and recorder. Dolder predicted 23% turnout and guessed low, as the end-of-night figure was 24.82%.

“I was surprised,” Dolder said. “I was kind of impressed.”

Dolder said there still are some stray ballots – 133 of 244 absentee or mail-in ballots have not yet been returned – but these were scattered and will not, she projects, alter the outcome of any individual race.

That’s not the case in Bureau County, however. Clerk Matt Eggers reported an end-of-night turnout of 15.1% – in line with his estimate of 15% to 20% – but he still has 850 outstanding ballots.

Until those are accounted for, he cannot yet call the 1st Ward race for Spring Valley City Council. In the race between Charles “C.J.” VanSchaick and Ed Jauch, there is a 14-vote differential and 26 stray ballots from that ward to be counted. Jeff Chiaventone, who worked for the street and water department for 32 years, maintains a lead with 94 votes and Jennifer Diaz with 87 votes in the 2nd Ward race, according to unofficial results.

That the three clerks all guessed with such precision is remarkable considering the polling was disrupted by severe weather alerts, including one issued at midday when voters might have used their lunch hours to cast ballots.

Nevertheless, Eggers doesn’t think turnout was dampened much by inclement weather.

“I think it would have been higher, but probably not a lot higher,” he said. “Sad to say, there wasn’t a lot on the ballot and a lot of people didn’t know the candidates.”

Princeton, Bureau County’s largest city, had uncontested races for mayor and City Council.

The clerks also predicted school races would be a draw and the numbers tend to bear that. The eight-way contest for IVCC board of trustees appears to have drawn voters in greater-than-expected numbers.

A Shaw Local News Network analysis showed solid across-the-board voter participation even when the hottest contests were removed from the equation. In La Salle County, for example, turnout was boosted by mayoral races in Oglesby (turnout: 38%) and Ottawa precincts (30%), but not by much. Turnout slid less than 3% without those contests.

More tellingly, 14 of the county’s 119 precincts recorded turnout lower than 10%.