What might a Cole Kmet extension look like for the Chicago Bears?

Some big decisions are looming for Bears general manager Ryan Poles.

While free agency and the draft are the biggest priorities on his doorstep, several of the Bears’ young star players are nearing the end of their rookie contracts. Discussions surrounding contract extensions are looming in the near future.

Tight end Cole Kmet is one such player. The Lake Barrington native will enter the final year of his contract in 2023. A second-round draft pick (43rd overall) in the 2020 draft, Kmet has emerged as a key contributor in the Bears’ offense.

Kmet almost certainly is a player the Bears want to keep around for a few more years. He finished the 2022 season with 50 receptions for 544 yards and seven touchdowns. His seven TDs tied for third among NFL tight ends.

With Kmet, it feels more like a question of when, not if, the Bears will extend him. A more significant question would be how much is it going to cost the Bears?

Production comparison

Below is a rough comparison between Kmet and several tight ends who earned contract extensions in recent years.

Some notes to keep in mind:

• Goedert signed his extension midseason in 2021. The statistical averages included in this chart include only his first three seasons and not his partial-season stats from 2021.
• Njoku was a first-round draft pick, so the Browns had a fifth-year option on his rookie deal. He didn’t sign his extension until after his fifth season.

All four comparisons here signed extensions within the past few years. There are striking similarities between Kmet and Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox in terms of on-field production over their first three seasons. For Kmet and his agent, the conversation absolutely should begin at $13 million per year annual average. They should settle for nothing less.

Kmet probably could make an argument for $14 million per year. His numbers are quite similar to those of Philadelphia’s Goedert and Cleveland’s Njoku. Njoku’s averages are a little bit better if you take out his injury-shortened 2019 season. There’s no reason Kmet couldn’t earn himself a contract in the range of what those guys earned – four years, about $56 million with roughly $30 million guaranteed.

Kmet also could make the argument that his two best seasons in 2021 and 2022 were on offenses with passing attacks ranked at or near the bottom of the league. On a passing attack that ranks even in the top half of the league, Kmet could be looking at production levels closer to 700 yards a season, assuming he remains healthy.

Wear and tear

Kmet has, remarkably, never missed a game in three seasons. He has been blessed by good health early in his career. He played 93.9% of the Bears’ offensive snaps in 2022, third-highest on the offense and by far the most among tight ends.

Kmet left Notre Dame after only three years, so he is a year younger than most of those tight ends in the chart above. He will turn 24 in March.

At this point, there are no major injury concerns that might derail contract talks.

Salary cap implications

The Bears have $94 million in available salary cap space in 2023. An extension wouldn’t hit the books until 2024, when the Bears have $170 million in projected cap space. For Poles, signing core players to extensions is not going to cause too much concern until a few years down the road.

Why it’s a good fit

As a homegrown talent who grew up in the suburbs, Kmet almost certainly wants to remain with the Bears. He has the perfect setup. His parents can drive right down I-90 to see his home games. Remaining with the Bears long enough to see a new stadium open in Arlington Heights would be a remarkable experience for a hometown star who played high school ball at St. Viator in Arlington Heights.

It makes all kinds of sense for the Bears, too. Kmet is a featured player in the passing attack who developed great chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields in 2022. The Bears don’t want to start over at the tight end position.