Carifio: Westward expansion seems like NIU’s manifest destiny

Call this controversial if you must, but the college football landscape is dramatically different than it was even five years ago.

And if the reports are true and NIU is being considered for a football-only spot in the newly restructured Mountain West, it seems like an opportunity the program can’t pass up.

School officials haven’t confirmed the report, but they haven’t technically denied it either – the only statement from the school regarding the issue is that no formal offer has been extended yet. The report said NIU and Toledo are being considered, not that there was a formal offer.

Maybe everything is just rumors, and nothing ends up happening. Which, frankly, seems like the most obvious outcome of where this ends up.

NIU has the chance to increase its profile and TV revenue from the current setup in the Mid-American Conference, not to mention create a better situation for other sports by moving to a different conference.

Call it manifest destiny. Heading west for football could be a boon for the school.

I’m not sure how college football purists continue to exist in this day and age, let alone geographic purists. Whether it was the death of the Big 8 in 1994 or the effective death of the Big East as a football conference a decade later, conference geography has made little to no sense. Not to mention today, when you’ve just got to look at whatever the Big Ten has going on geographically. Oregon-Rutgers as a Big Ten battle is cool, but Wyoming-NIU in the Mountain West is a bridge too far?

Heck, NIU even spent 1994-96 in the Big West. So we can just stop this argument here and now? Joining Toledo as football-only Mountain West members starting in 2026 isn’t without precedent.

Don’t forget we’re talking about four conference road games a year. So yeah, Muncie and Kalamazoo are being replaced by Las Vegas and Hawaii.

And we’re also talking about a bigger TV cut – probably. The Mountain West will have a new TV deal in 2026 when the reported new-look league will begin. Currently, reports place the MAC TV deal at $880,000 per school and the Mountain West at $5 million.

There’s no guarantee the new deal will be for that much. Combining the various reports, the league could end up looking something like UNLV, Air Force, Wyoming, San Jose State, New Mexico, Nevada, Texas-El Paso, Texas State and/or Tarleton State as full-time members. NIU and Toledo would be football-only members along with Hawaii. And that could still change drastically in the next few days as we speed toward a resolution.

Certainly seems like an exciting opportunity from a football standpoint. But these decisions aren’t based on one sport. When the decision is made, it has to be what’s best for all sports.

And that’s the secretly good part of a potential move as well. It could open NIU up to join a conference other than the MAC for other sports.

If you compare the geography of the Horizon League, Ohio Valley and Missouri Valley, all make at least as much sense geographically as the MAC. And geography for non-football sports is much more important for a multitude of reasons. It’s not just economic, but scholastic as well.

The Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley have multiple Illinois schools the Huskies play regularly across all sports. Weeknight trips to Macomb or Chicago are far less daunting than Buffalo.

Then there’s the last thing purists don’t want to talk about. Seismic changes are coming to the overall landscape of college football soon, and the move toward superconferences is probably just Step 1. I’m certainly not in the position to try and guess what that’s going to look like.

Maybe it’s a formal divorce between the Power 4 and Group of 5 teams. Maybe it’s a full-on exodus of Power 4 conferences from the sport. Who knows.

Whatever form that future takes, heading west for football could help the destiny of its entire athletic department.