NIU vs. Central Michigan: What to watch for as Huskies seek to keep bowl hopes alive

DeKALB – Someone will be eliminated from bowl contention Wednesday when Central Michigan heads to Northern Illinois in a Mid-American Conference West battle.

The Huskies (2-6, 1-3 MAC West) and Chippewas (2-6, 1-3) enter not only with identical records, but both have been missing a key offensive piece – NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi has not played a full game in the past six weeks, and CMU running back Lew Nichols hasn’t played in the past two games.

NIU lost last week at Ohio 24-17. Kickoff for the CMU game is at 6 p.m. Wednesday on ESPNU.

Scouting the Chippewas

Even missing the past two games, Nichols still is the MAC’s fifth-leading rusher with 454 yards and six touchdowns. On defense, the Chips are third in the league in yards allowed. Thomas Incoom is a big part of that with 7.5 sacks, second in the MAC. He also has a league-best 12.5 tackles for loss.

NIU won last year’s meeting 39-38 on the road. The Huskies haven’t won two in a row against the Chips since 2012-13 and are 2-6 since then against Central Michigan.

Three storylines to watch

1. Can the defense continue its upward tick?

The Huskies have risen to sixth in the MAC in total defense, allowing 389 yards per game, although they remain ninth in allowing 33 points per game. The Huskies haven’t given up more than 160 ground yards since Week 3 and have given up 200 yards or fewer through the air for the past three weeks.

NIU has outgained its opponents four straight weeks but is 1-3 in those games. NIU was outgained in its first four games and was 1-3 in those games.

“I just think they’re playing more together on team defense,” NIU coach Thomas Hammock said. “Everybody understands that every technique and fundamental is important to the success of the defense. Our staff has done a good job of staying committed to the process of getting kids to buy in and understand, ‘Hey you may not make this play, but you need to be in your gap, you need to be under this route.’ I think our players have responded to that and started to feel confident in the scheme, and I think they have the chance to finish the season playing much better defense than we started.”

2. If needed, how will Justin Lynch continue to evolve?

The passing offense has slipped to 10th in the MAC since Ethan Hampton and Lombardi got injured. Before last week, Lynch had attempted only one pass despite leading the offense in multiple games. Last week, he was 9 of 18 for 110 yards with no interceptions or touchdowns.

After 89 rushing yards against Ball State, he has rushed for 60 total since.

“Justin has come in and done a nice job,” Hammock said. “He’s been thrust into a role, and he’s come out here and operated. I think obviously he can continue to get better, and that’s what you want to see week to week. You want to see that progression of a guy who’s playing, feeling more confident and comfortable and start executing a little better.”

3. Can the Huskies get more points in the red zone?

NIU reached Ohio territory seven times last week and the red zone three times. The Huskies scored on each red zone trip but had only one touchdown in the game.

The Huskies are third in the MAC in red zone production, but Hammock said he still feels like the team can leave fewer points on the table.

“We may have to bring in a different package,” Hammock said. “When the field gets condensed, there’s 11 eyes looking at the ball with no threat of going deep. We may need to package things a little differently, bring in some new plays so we can execute.”

Pulse of the fans

Analysis

Is Wednesday the start of a four-game surge to an improbable bowl bid? Or is it the official nail in the coffin of the 2022 season?

Every break, every bounce, every stroke of fortune that went the Huskies’ way last year has gone against them this year. Hammock has pointed out that NIU probably is eight plays away from a 6-2 record and being in the thick of the MAC West title hunt.

Injuries have been a big factor – and really, you just have to look at the secondary to prove that. They’ve, statistically at least, made the biggest leap over the past three weeks. And not coincidentally, they used the same lineup for the past three weeks in a row.

CMU’s offense has struggled without Nichols, so if he’s out again, it might be the first break the Huskies need on a tough path to four straight wins.