Steve Soucie’s Week 8 playoff projection: Small-school upsets change postseason landscape

I tend to point to one simple fact that many don’t recognize when talking about the construction of the IHSA playoffs.

I’ve uttered the phrase “small school results affect the big schools and big school results affect the small school results” an infinite number of times in the past, but I can’t think of a better tangible example than what happened in Week 8.

Two Class 1A schools (Nokomis and Deer Creek Mackinaw) that a grand majority of larger school fans might have trouble locating on a map collected surprising wins in Week 8 to keep them from joining the dreaded five-loss group.

The wins should be enough to lift both schools into the field of 256 teams provided they both win games in Week 9.

But from a projection stand point, those two teams who are both Class 1A schools, needed spots made for them in the projected field.

Sometimes spots are claimed by teams in the field only to have another team falter in the same classification to basically make it a clean swap.

But there were no swaps in 1A this week, only new entrants.

And those two new entrants changed every class bubble from Class 1A to Class 8A.

The bubbles have been a fascinating watch this season because of the power programs that reside on them. To this point, those power programs have settled into the smaller of the two classifications that they could potential reside in.

All of them moved up. Bloomington Central Catholic went from Class 1A to Class 2A, Wilmington from Class 2A to Class 3A, Morris from Class 4A to Class 5A and Providence from Class 5A to 6A.

They all still reside on the fence, but now on the other side of where they did a week ago.

There’s still plenty of ways that could move back to their previous designations because if we’ve learned anything by now, each move in every class can affect the other ones.

A quick look at the numbers heading into Week 9 before we discuss the probability of four-win teams making the field.

• There are 147 clinched berths by teams that have six wins or more or have clinched a conference title with a league with at least six participating teams. Note: There is one team in the state, Noble/Rauner, who by the Chicago Public League’s additional rules for some qualifiers has not clinched its berth despite having six wins.

• 219 teams have at least five wins and are playoff eligible.

• There are 69 four-win teams that can still reach five victories. There are another four Chicago Public League teams that by additional rules mandated by the CPL cannot qualify for the playoffs even if they reach five victories. Those schools are King, Sullivan, Noble/Golder and Rowe/Clark.

Of that group of 69 teams the projection has 36 of those four-win teams losing. All but two of those losses are projected to come to teams with superior or equal records. If the projection is wrong on any of those outcomes, excluding matchups of two 4-4 teams, one less spot would be available to 4-win teams for a spot in the field.

Conversely, 33 4-4 teams are projected to win this week. All but one of those wins are projected to come over teams with inferior or equal records. If the projection is wrong on any of those outcomes, excluding matchups of two 4-4 teams, one more spot would be made available to a 4-win team to earn entrance into the field.

Once one has done all the math there, 252 spots are accounted for. If the projection is completely correct, or has the equal number of surprise wins and surprise losses that would leave four potential bids for 4-win teams to fill the 256 spots.

The projection has the following four teams qualifying via that route: Brother Rice, Nazareth, Glenbrook South and Taft. Brother Rice and Nazareth still can qualify for the field with a Week 9 win as they are currently projected for a loss, Glenbrook South and Taft must win and hope that the field cooperates to let them in.

Here is the Week 8 playoff projection for all eight classes. (Included in Class 1A through 6A are north/south divisional maps and below each bracket is more context on what happened in Week 7 that changed the make-up of the brackets):

Class 1A

Class 1A Enrollment Range: Up to 300

Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Carlyle, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison

Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Chicago Christian, Tri-Valley

New teams in field:

Class 1A North/South Map

Class 2A

Class 2A Enrollment Range: 303 to 406.5

Largest 1A teams by enrollment: Carlyle, Deer Creek-Mackinaw, Cumberland, Althoff, Morrison

Smallest 2A teams by enrollment: Arthur, Bloomington Central Catholic, Momence, Chicago Christian, Tri-Valley

Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Nashville, Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca, Auburn

New teams in the field:

Class 2A North/South Map

Class 3A

Class 3A Enrollment Range: 409.5 to 530.5

Largest 2A teams by enrollment: Nashville, Dwight, Piasa Southwestern, Seneca, Auburn

Smallest 3A teams by enrollment: Wilmington, Carlinville, Paxton, Crane/Oregon (same enrollment)

Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity, Monmouth

New teams in field:

Class 3A North/South Map

Class 4A

Class 4A Enrollment Range: 541.5 to 833

Largest 3A teams by enrollment: Prairie Central, Paris, Roxana, Tolono Unity, Monmouth

Smallest 4A teams by enrollment: Benton, Greenville, Phillips, Harrisburg, Dyett

Largest 4A teams by enrollment: DePaul Prep, St. Viator, Lincoln, Agricultural Science, Ridgewood

New teams in field:

Class 4A North/South Map

Class 5A

Class 5A Enrollment Range: 840.5 to 1290.5

Largest 4A teams by enrollment: DePaul Prep, St. Viator, Lincoln, Agricultural Science, Ridgewood

Smallest 5A teams by enrollment: Geneseo, St. Laurence, Morris, Rochelle, Evergreen Park

Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Antioch, T.F. North, Peoria, Prairie Ridge, Payton

New teams in field:

Class 5A North/South Map

Class 6A

Class 6A Enrollment Range: 1296.075 to 1782.5

Largest 5A teams by enrollment: Antioch, T.F. North, Peoria, Prairie Ridge, Payton

Smallest 6A teams by enrollment: Providence, Danville, Kaneland, Dunlap, Centennial

Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park, Hubbard

New teams in field:

Class 6A North/South Map

Class 7A

Class 7A Enrollment Range: 1784 to 2156

Largest 6A teams by enrollment: Grant, Lake Zurich, Blue Island Eisenhower, Highland Park, Hubbard

Smallest 7A teams by enrollment: Libertyville, Rockford Auburn, Wheaton Warrenville South, Willowbrook, Quincy.

Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Downers Grove North, Prospect, Brother Rice, Normal Community, Moline

New teams in field:

Class 8A

Class 8A Enrollment Range: 2255 and up

Largest 7A teams by enrollment: Downers Grove North, Prospect, Brother Rice, Normal Community, Moline

Smallest 8A teams by enrollment: Glenbard East, Edwardsville, Glenbard West, Maine South, St. Ignatius

New teams in field: