IHSA playoff outlook for Week 9: What do Illinois Valley teams need to do to make the field of 256?

With just one game remaining in the IHSA football regular season and the postseason looming for the top 256 teams statewide, here are where the Illinois Valley’s 11-man football teams stand coming down the home stretch.

The first tiebreaker the IHSA uses to rank teams with the same record is playoff points, the combined win total of a teams’ regular-season opponents. The number of playoff points required to earn a playoff spot varies year to year. Each team still eligible for a playoff spot listed here also has its playoff point total listed.

Locked in

Seneca 8-0 (26 playoff points)

Despite clinching the outright Chicagoland Prairie Conference championship for a second straight year with their win over Marquette, the Fighting Irish will enter the postseason as an at-large qualifier due to the conference coming up one team short of the six required for an automatic bid. It’s a technicality, though, and will not affect Seneca’s playoff path in any way.

What will is how the Irish fare this Friday in a home matchup against 7-1 Durand-Pecatonica, a Class 3A state quarterfinalist in 2023. A win likely will give Seneca one of the top seeds in either the 2A or 3A field.

The Irish are currently projected to land in 2A by Friday Night Drive expert Steve Soucie, which is where they were last fall despite being a 3A team their previous eight playoff appearances.

Princeton 7-1 (36 playoff points)

Like Seneca, the Tigers will go in with an at-large bid. Also like the Irish, Princeton is expected to be one of the top seeds – and larger schools in its class with an IHSA enrollment of 515 and the Class 3A high-end cutoff coming in around 560 in Steve Soucie’s latest projections – in its class.

Barring an extremely disadvantageous geographic break in the 3A field, the Tigers can likely lock up a first-round home game this Friday with a win at 5-3 Erie-Prophetstown, a likely low-seeded playoff entrant in the Class 2A bracket.

Sitting comfortably

Morris 5-3 (48 playoff points)

It is difficult to foresee any Week 9 scenario – even the most extreme ones – that ends with Morris missing the postseason as an at-large bid. That’s thanks to its five wins and massive number of playoff points (the most of any team in the Interstate 8 Conference), Saturday should see Morris awarded its fifth consecutive playoff appearance and 38th in program history.

It can lock it up and vastly improve its seeding, however, with a win Friday 289 miles from home at Byron Center, Michigan, a 7-1 team from the Great Lake State.

Morris’ enrollment of 848 straddles the Class 4A/5A cutoff, which Steve Soucie is projecting to come in around 865. Its four most recent appearances and 10 of its last 13 have come in 5A, but 4A could be in the cards for 2024.

Sandwich 5-3 (43 playoff points)

With five wins and the highest total of playoff points in the Kishwaukee River Conference, the Indians seem to be a lock for a second straight playoff spot, most likely as an at-large team though the league title is still in play in Week 9. Sandwich can lock up its bid for certain and improve its standing in the Class 4A field with a win at home this Friday against 4-4 Marengo.

Either way, a first-round road playoff game seems to be the likeliest scenario for the Indians, though a win would give them a slight chance to host if things broke just right for them.

Marquette 5-3 (37 playoff points)

A 12th consecutive Class 1A playoff berth seems very likely for the Crusaders as an at-large participant even if they can’t score a clinching sixth victory in this Friday’s home rematch with also 5-3 Dwight/Gardner-South Wilmington. Marquette defeated the Trojans 26-21 back in Week 4.

What will be on the line in addition to bragging rights is a more advantageous (in theory, anyway) playoff seed and, for Marquette only due to its good though not spectacular number of playoff points, the slight possibility of a first-round home playoff game.

Steve Soucie currently has Marquette projected for an opening-round No. 9 vs. No. 8 road game in the 1A field.

On the threshold

Dwight/Gardner-S. Wilmington 5-3 (29 playoff points)

Five wins should – should – get Dwight/GSW in as an at-large bid if things play out as forecasted. Its low number of playoff points (the Trojans picked up just one in Week 8, from Seneca) thanks to playing three currently 0-8 opponents, however, might make for some stressful watching of our Live with Friday Night Drive livestream hosted by FND’s Steve Soucie late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

That’s all moot if the Trojans can get a clinching sixth win Friday at also 5-3 Ottawa Marquette, which edged the Trojans 26-21 just over a month ago. Win and Dwight/GSW is in. Lose and the Trojans are probably in ... maybe ... but could be the bottom seed on their bracket.

The Trojans were in Class 2A in 2023 and currently project to return there with one of the larger enrollments in the field, but could wind up in 3A.

A win and a little luck

La Salle-Peru 3-5 (37 playoff points)

The Cavaliers’ good but not great total of 37 playoff points – nonconference games with two 1-7 teams, Ottawa and O’Fallon being the main limiting factor despite L-P playing an always-tough I-8 schedule – isn’t encouraging for L-P’s hopes of getting in with four wins unless more than the projected five four-win teams sneak in.

There are multiple scenarios where more than five 4-5 teams make it and the Cavaliers can find their way in, however. All of them begin or end with La Salle-Peru traveling 222 miles down to O’Fallon this Friday and bringing home a victory. If they do, the Cavaliers could find themselves right on the cutoff for playoff participation and keeping close tabs on Steve Soucie’s Live with Friday Night Drive breakdown late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

L-P has been in Class 5A in its last seven playoff appearances dating back to 2003.

Hail Mary time

Streator 3-5 (32 playoff points)

Any unlikely scenario where the Bulldogs sneak into the postseason – likely in Class 5A if they did, where they landed in their last three playoff appearances – starts and ends with upsetting 8-0 Wilmington, the defending Class 2A state champions and recently crowned Illinois Central Eight Conference champs, this Friday in Wilmington.

As difficult as that is, it would create another hindrance to Streator’s chances. Defeating Wilmington also removes an expected playoff point from Streator’s total, and the Bulldogs’ nonconference schedule of two 1-7 teams has done them no favors in that regard. It’s a long, long shot for the Bulldogs to get in at 4-5 even if they can shock the state and get that fourth victory.

Bureau Valley 3-5 (31 playoff points)

It’s hard to envision the cutoff for 4-5 teams sneaking in with at-large bids coming in quite this low (if any 4-5 teams get in at all). If it did, though, Bureau Valley could do its part by besting 1-7 West Hancock at home this Friday.

Traditionally a Class 2A or 3A team, Bureau Valley went 1A in its last appearance in 2016, though Steve Soucie’s current model would have BV in 2A if it made it past Week 9.