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In terms of expected chaos, Week 8 didn’t provide too much of it.
A few small upsets in Class 1A did lead to a few changes though, most notably a small shift on the bubbles that lead to some changes in the Class 1A through Class 3A draws.
Perhaps the most significant of the moves now finds defending Class 2A state champion Wilmington sliding into the Class 3A field as the smallest team in that field.
In all, just eight teams are new or returning to the projection this week and two classifications (Class 6A and Class 7A) saw no changes to the fields of 32 teams from the previous week.
All this means is that a storm is likely brewing.
Let’s start with a breakdown of the numbers:
There are 226 teams that have reached five victories.
However, five of those teams will not be eligible for the playoffs because of rules of the Chicago Public League. There are four divisions that will only send the champions of the conferences and the winners of a runner-up crossover game to the playoffs.
That drops the win total of teams with five victories already in the bank to 221.
There are 60 teams that are 4-4 heading into Week 9, two of that group is also ineligible because of CPL schools leaving 58 teams in that group.
Perhaps one of the most astonishing things about the Week 9 schedule is that there’s not a single game in the state that pairs a pair of 4-4 teams playing one another.
As such, a maximum of 280 teams can theoretically reach the five win group.
But inside that group of 4-4 teams, 28 teams are facing off against teams with better records than 4-4, while 29 of those teams are facing off against teams with a worse record. One team, Taylorville, is slated to receive a forfeit victory in Week 9 to get its fifth win.
If the projection is entirely correct and all 4-4 teams playing a team with a worse record win and all 4-4 teams playing a team with a better record lose that would leave 251 teams set with five victories.
Each upset win recorded by a 4-4 team against a team with a better record would move that number up one from 251, while each upset loss recorded by a 4-4 team against a team with a worse record would move that number down one.
If the projection runs correct or has an even number of upset wins and upset losses the field would need five four win-teams to round out the field of 256. Currently projected to claim those spots are Lane (who would reach 4-5 only by defeating 4-4 Amundsen in Week 9, if they do not win that game Amundsen would take Lane’s spot in the field), Kenwood, Oswego East, IC Catholic and Glenbard West.
Collinsville is first on the list of teams to miss with Lake Zurich, Ridgewood and East Moline United next on the list.
The pendulum is hard to predict in Week 9. Two years ago multiple teams sparked upset bids and basically eliminated the need for four win teams to fill the field as only one made it. Last season, there were only three upset winners and a large amount of teams that failed against teams with lesser records which opened the flood gates for six four-win teams to make the field.
Here is the Week 8 playoff projection for all eight classes. (Included in Class 1A through 6A are north/south divisional maps and below each bracket is more context on what happened in Week 8 that changed the make-up of the brackets):
Class 1A
Class 1A Enrollment Range: Up to 296.5 (Oakwood)
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Oakwood | Upsets Salt Fork to create its path |
| Jacksonville Routt | Another WIVC wild one as upset win over Greenfield gets them in |
Class 1A North/South Map
Class 2A
Class 2A Enrollment Range: 299 (Deer Creek-Mackinaw) to 406.5 (Nashville)
New teams in the field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Arthur | Was in Class 1A |
| Bloomington Central Catholic | Was in Class 1A |
| St. Teresa | Fought way into field with win over Breese Mater Dei |
| Deer Creek-Mackinaw | Win over Clinton gives them a path to field |
Class 2A North/South Map
Class 3A
Class 3A Enrollment Range: 409.5 (Wilmington) to 559 (Phoenix Military)
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Military | Needs to win runner-up playoff matchup in CPL |
| Wilmington | Was in Class 2A |
| Carlinville | Was in Class 2A |
Class 3A North/South Map
Class 4A
Class 4A Enrollment Range: 561.5 (South Shore) to 868.5 (Rochelle)
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| South Shore | Was in Class 3A |
| Rochelle | Was in Class 5A |
Class 4A North/South Map
Class 5A
Class 5A Enrollment Range: 882 (Jacksonville) to 1340.5 (Dunlap)
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Freeport | Looks to breakthrough in middle of NIC-10 race |
Class 5A North/South Map
Class 6A
Class 6A Enrollment Range: 1374.5 (Simeon) to 1868 (Willowbrook)
New teams in field: There were no changes to the field.
Class 6A North/South Map
Class 7A
Class 7A Enrollment Range: 1876 (Quincy) to 2322 (Glenbard West)
New teams in field: There were no changes to the field.
Class 8A
Class 8A Enrollment Range: 2351.5 (Plainfield North) and up
New teams in field:
| Team added | Reason for addition |
|---|---|
| Lane | Has a good shot to make it as a four-win team if they get there |
| Homewood-Flossmoor | A win over Lockport is a must for them |