2023 IHSA playoffs: Steve Soucie’s Class 2A first-round analysis

Fear the north.

The north side of the bracket in Class 2A is perhaps as deep as any in all eight classifications as it features four undefeated teams and five more eight-win squads, forcing one of them, Rockridge, into an opening round road game despite losing just one game all season.

The north bracket’s power is obvious but the south bracket has a few dangerous squads as well making this bracket one where the fireworks are likely to start as early as round two.

First-round matchups

Seneca vs. Dwight: Seneca flattened Dwight 43-11 just two weeks ago as part of both school’s Chicagoland Prairie slate and Seneca will be an overwhelming favorite to repeat that feat and move onto the second round. Dwight did manage to be one of just four teams that managed to score double digit points against a stingy Seneca defense.

Pick: Seneca

Westville vs. Rockridge: Westville padded its season stats a little bit by picking on some of the lesser teams in the Vermilion Valley, but it wasn’t all fluff. Impressive wins over Salt Fork and Bismarck-Henning were highlights to the regular season. Rockridge dropped its season opener to Sterling Newman but has been sound since that setback including toppling Morrison for its only loss in Week 7.

Pick: Rockridge

Tri-Valley vs. El Paso-Gridley: Tri-Valley beat El Paso-Gridley 31-13 back in Week 5 and it actually turned into the most competitive game the Vikings played in during its undefeated run through the Heart of Illinois Conference. EPG’s 13 points was also the third highest output anyone managed against a Tri-Valley defense that kept five opponents to single digit scoring.

Pick: Tri-Valley

Wilmington vs. Mercer County: Wilmington was defeated by Seneca in Week 1 (27-21) but almost immediately went back to wrecking everything in its path after the loss. The Wildcats allowed just 63 points in its remaining eight games and had at least a 21-point margin of victory in each of its remaining games. Mercer stumbled out of the gates with a 2-3 record but has regrouped with four straight wins. The Golden Eagles have beaten just one team with a winning record.

Pick: Wilmington

Maroa-Forsyth vs. Chicago Christian: The biggest intrigue of the Class 2A map on pairings night was which side of the north/south line would the Trojans be placed on. Maroa could have justifiably been placed in either but will have to power through the loaded north bracket if they want to make a return trip. Chicago Christian will have a hard time matching up as it didn’t defeat a single team with a winning record.

Pick: Maroa-Forsyth

Momence vs. Knoxville: Momence’s rapid turnaround from a 3-6 record can largely be attributed to much better play on the defense. Momence gave up 35 points in its lone loss of the season to Bismarck-Henning, but only a little more than that in its other eight games. Knoxville romped through its first seven games before being trampled itself by Fulton in Week 8.

Pick: Momence

Bloomington Central Catholic vs. Mendon Unity: Bloomington Central Catholic emerged from the Illini Prairie Conference unscathed which was a bit of surprise. Anchored around a strong defense, the Saints routinely open things up on offense as well, scoring 30-plus points in all but two of its games. Mendon Unity started 1-3 with a pair of those losses coming to undefeated teams but has opened things up during a five-game winning streak.

Pick: Bloomington Central Catholic

Farmington vs. Bismarck-Henning: Farmington hasn’t been quite as dominant as its been in previous seasons but the Farmers still are stacking up the wins. Bismarck-Henning took a pair of early season losses that were a bit of a surprise but exploded for nearly 200 points of its final four games and removed Momence from the ranks of the undefeated in Week 7.

Pick: Bismarck-Henning

Arthur vs. Quincy Notre Dame: Arthur walked a bit of a tight wire during its unblemished run through the Lincoln Prairie Conference, which is a locked league, making it difficult to decipher if that success can be translated to the rest of the Class 2A field. Quincy Notre Dame is also a mystery to the 2A field having played strong larger schools and five schools from Missouri in an hodgepodge of a independent schedule.

Pick: Quincy Notre Dame

Nashville vs. Pana: Nashville has surrendered quite a few points this season including 132 during its three losses. But this program usually finds the levers to pull in the postseason. Early on it looked Pana was well on its way to grappling for the South Central Conference title but it lost three of its last five games including one to a non-playoff qualifier.

Pick: Nashville

Athens vs. Piasa Southwestern: Athens two losses are by a combined eight points to a pair of small school powerhouses (Maroa-Forsyth and Williamsville) so the Warriors look like a dangerous foe to have to deal with in 2A. Piasa Southwestern emerged from a cluttered South Central Conference race with six wins but was outscored by its opponents on the season.

Pick: Athens

Red Bud vs. Chester: Red Bud scraped out a 14-7 win to defeat Chester in what amounted to the championship game of the Cahokia/Illinois Conference in Week 8. That win was part of a Red Bud six-game winning streak but it probably doesn’t relish trying to solve the Chester defense again which has played extremely well since the Yellow Jackets started the season 0-3.

Pick: Red Bud

Shelbyville vs. Trenton Wesclin: Shelbyville largely cruised to wins in its first eight games of the season but hit a speed bump in Week 9 as Nashville posted 54 points on the Rams in a runaway win. Wesclin only beat one team that finished above .500, an out-of-state team from Missouri and was beaten soundly by all of the playoff bound teams it played. It also dropped a decision to a non-playoff qualifier.

Pick: Shelbyville

Lawrenceville vs. Vandalia: Lawrenceville’s course of action seemed to be simply trying to outscore its foes and it was a successful path for most of the time, but the seven teams the Indians beat defeated just 16 opponents combined. Vandalia’s season has been up-and-down after a 4-1 start and was capped by a surprising loss to Litchfield in Week 9.

Pick: Vandalia

Johnston City vs. Auburn: It’s always difficult to read how teams from locked conferences, which both of these teams are, will fare in the playoff field. But it looks like Johnston City has a quality enough defense, that allowed just 90 points all season, to carry the day in this one. Although Auburn’s list of four losses are a virtual who’s who of small school football powers.

Pick: Johnston City

White County vs. Breese Mater Dei: White County has to regroup quickly from a serious misstep in Week 9 where Johnston City rolled up a 30-point win over them. Mater Dei has played a considerably stronger schedule as an independent, but it went just 1-3 against playoff bound opponents.

Pick: Breese Mater Dei