Charles Farm development could impact Geneva D-304 student population, school boundaries

Geneva School District 304 has seen its student population shrink from 5,732 students in the 2017-18 school year to the current year’s enrollment of 5,044, a decrease of 688 students, according to a demographer’s report presented at the Monday, Sept. 9 school board meeting.

But the Pulte Homes proposal for a development of more than 2,000 homes could mean an additional 500 to 700 students for the district.

“The data is based on everything we knew – except the proposed development out west,” Superintendent Andrew Barrett said.

Pulte Homes submitted a concept plan July 30 for Charles Farm, seeking to annex a 970-acre development to St. Charles. It would have a Del Web 967-unit active seniors community, 846 single-family homes, 198 townhomes and 15 acres of commercial development.

Neighbors have objected and the proposal is still pending.

What the development could mean to District 304, however, is that 546 single family homes and 198 townhomes could – potentially – have school age children, Barrett said.

“That has important implications,” Barrett said. “Based on some analysis I think that is pretty well-grounded – also a million things can change, right? Based on that, here is what we do think: We think that projections are around 500 to 700 students could come to the school district over the course of the complete project. That would be at full buildout in 2039.”

Demographer Charles Kofron looked at the proposed Pulte development and agreed with the estimate, Barrett said.

“That’s K-12,” Barrett said. “It wouldn’t be we’re all of a sudden trying to fit 700 kids in the high school...I guess I would also add, quickly, we believe that based on that number, and the numbers you’ve seen with our enrollment decline...we think that number can be accommodated in the district as it currently exists.”

Preliminary financials from the development look net positive for the district, Barrett said, “especially considering...how large that Del Web is.”

“Ultimately, we would be looking at hundreds of millions of dollars worth of new real estate that would come on the tax rolls,” Barrett said. “And you would see millions of extra dollars each year coming in as tax revenue. Obviously, we would need to spend more to support those students. But...it looks like it would be net positive.”

The district would have to adjust elementary boundaries, as new students from the Pulte development would all be in the Mill Creek attendance area, Barrett said.

“That can’t happen,” Barrett said.

“I do think it’s fair to say – and for us at this table to think about – additional facility needs could be a consideration,” Barrett said. “I don’t think we would need a new school. But additions might be needed.”

Barrett also presented some key points from the demographer’s 103-page report.

“The district has seen consistently smaller cohorts of kids...when the average size of a grade level at the high school was about 500 students,” according to the demographer’s findings. “The number now is about 400 and several of the district’s elementary cohorts are in the mid-300s. It was noted that the decline has been district-wide.”

Projections are for enrollment to continue to decline, then plateau, and then increase again, Barrett said.

“Somewhere between 20 and 25% of residents in our district have school-age children,” Barrett said.

Some of the factors to consider are that residents are aging in place so fewer students are coming into the district, according to the report.

Demographer Kofron’s report also found that:

• The opening of a new elementary school in 2009 exacerbated the district’s enrollment impact, as it was built with the expectation of new housing that never materialized. Fabyan Elementary School, 0S350 Grengs Lane, Blackberry Township, was the district’s sixth elementary school.
• Staffing adjustments were never made to match declining enrollments at the district’s two middle schools until the current school year.
• The district has actively worked to build curriculum and course offerings based on the assumption that there would be larger numbers of high school students. The implications are that course offerings and pathways have been built, but there may not be enrollment to sustain them.
• Births are declining for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 school years with expected kindergarten enrollment to range from 319 to 357 students, and between 325 and 384 for the 2033-34 school year.
• Enrollment projections are projected to decrease slowly over the next five school years leveling out at 4,835 in 2031-32, before trending upward between the 2023-24 and 2033-34 school years.
• High school enrollments are expected to stay roughly between 1,700 to 1,800 students through the 2027-28 school year, before declining to a range between 1,560 and 1,705 students in 2033-34.
• Implications are that K-12 enrollments will be stable or decline slightly between 2024-25 and 2033-34.

The full report is available on the district’s website at meetings.boardbook.org.