Bear Down, Nerd Up: These numbers are major overreactions to Caleb Williams’ debut

The Chicago Bears won their season opener on Sunday despite a mediocre performance from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams threw for only 93 yards, completing 14 of 29 passes with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions.

But let’s take it one step deeper. What do the advanced analytics have to say about his performance?

Week 1 was all about Williams, and this week’s Bear Down, Nerd Up stat breakdown will be, too. Here’s a look at what the numbers have to say about Williams. Let’s remember that this was Week 1. It’s nearly impossible to draw any conclusions from one football game. The sample size is too small.

But hey, the NFL is about overreacting. So let’s overreact.

[ Caleb Williams’ NFL debut wasn’t pretty, but it was a win for Chicago Bears ]

Short, but sweet?

The No. 1 thing that stands out when perusing NFL Next Gen Stats is the difference in yards between Williams’ intended passes and his completed passes.

Williams’ intended passing attempts averaged 7.8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That was 10th among all quarterbacks with at least 15 pass attempts (through Sunday).

The average air yards per completion, however, was only 2.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That ranked fourth lowest in Week 1, ahead of only Washington’s Jayden Daniels, Denver’s Bo Nix and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson. So three of the bottom four were all rookie quarterbacks making their debuts. That’s maybe not a huge surprise (although it’s concerning that Watson is on this list of you’re a Browns fan).

Williams’ air yard differential between his attempts and his completions was minus 5.1 yards. That was second-worst behind only Watson’s minus 6.2 yards.

Williams’ passing charts indicate as much. He completed only 1 of 7 pass attempts that went more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. His 13 remaining completions were all short of that mark. He did not complete any passes over the middle of the field. Five of his 14 completions came behind the line of scrimmage.

This is one game. It doesn’t mean that’s always how it will be. The Bears will adjust. They will attack different defenses with different approaches.

Week 1 blues

Week 1 is always particularly strange in the NFL. Offenses have yet to gel. Teams don’t play as many snaps in the preseason as they used to. Practice time during training camp is significantly less than it used to be. Passing attacks usually start to wake up by Weeks 2, 3 or 4.

A total of 16 starting quarterbacks (prior to Monday’s contest) finished their season opener with fewer than 200 passing yards. Names on that list included Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Geno Smith, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence.

Williams’ 93 passing yards were lowest among starting quarterbacks, but his team won the game. Second-lowest was New England’s Jacoby Brissett with 121 yards, and the Patriots also won the game.

So, go figure.

Williams became the first quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to win his debut since David Carr in 2002, snapping a streak of 15 debut losses for No. 1 QBs. All of the following QBs were No. 1 picks who lost their debuts during that 22-year span: Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Murray, Burrow, Lawrence and Bryce Young.

Rare company

Per Elias Sports Bureau, Williams was the first Bears rookie QB to win a Week 1 contest since at least 1950. Williams and backup Tyson Bagent are the only Bears rookies to win their debuts in the past 20 years.

Since 1950, only five Bears rookie QBs have won their debuts: Williams, Bagent (2023), Craig Krenzel (2004), Rex Grossman (2003) and Jim McMahon (1982).

Missed opportunities

Williams seemed to miss several easy throws on Sunday. Next Gen Stats’ analysis estimated that Williams’ expected completion percentage on the throws he attempted should’ve been 64.4%, according to their models. In reality, he completed 48.3% of his passes.

His minus 16.1-yard difference between expected completions and actual completions was the third-worst mark in the league in Week 1. Only the Giants’ Daniel Jones and and the Panthers’ Bryce Young had worse marks in Week 1.

“[I] didn’t perform the way that I wanted to. I missed a few passes that I normally don’t miss.”

—  Caleb Williams, Bears quarterback

“[I] didn’t perform the way that I wanted to,” Williams said after the game. “I missed a few passes that I normally don’t miss.”

That included some short, easy ones.

Carter’s kick return

Enough about the quarterback.

DeAndre Carter’s 67-yard kick return was arguably one of the biggest plays of the game and an underrated play of the game. It set up the Bears in great field position and led to their first points of the season. The Bears managed a much-needed field goal before halftime.

Per Next Gen Stats, Carter reached 20.03 mph on the kick return. He was among the top 20 fastest ball carriers across the league in Week 1.

“The other 10 guys did a great job,” Carter said after the game. “All I really did was run, for real. Run straight. Everybody got on their blocks. Well designed run scheme.”

On the 67-yard return, he ran a total of 76.6 yards when factoring in his lateral movement. So yeah, he pretty much just ran straight.

It marked the longest kickoff return by a member of the Bears since Cordarrelle Patterson scored on a 104-yard return in 2020.

Gold medal effort

Jonathan Owens scored a touchdown on a third-quarter blocked punt. Teammate Daniel Hardy blocked the punt and Owens ran the ball back for six points.

It marked the Bears’ first punt block returned for a touchdown since Corey Wootton did it in 2012. It also marked Owens’ second career touchdown. He returned a fumble for a touchdown last year as a member of the Green Bay Packers.

His wife Simone Biles, who did not appear to be at the game Sunday, wrote on X that she “almost had a heart attack.”