Bear Down, Nerd Up: Swift bounces back, but what do advanced metrics say about his performance?

D’Andre Swift finally had a breakout performance. It took four weeks, but the Chicago Bears’ $24.5 million running back looked like a back who was worth the money during Sunday’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Swift ran for 93 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, while also contributing 72 receiving yards on seven catches. In doing so, Swift became the first Bears player with at least 70 rushing yards and 70 receiving yards in a game since Jeremy Langford in 2015.

Last week in Bear Down, Nerd Up, I spent a lot of time discussing the things Swift wasn’t doing well. So it’s only fair to give him some praise after a big game. Here’s the Week 4 addition of Shaw Local’s stat breakdown.

Running back rebound

Overall, Swift’s first three games were pretty inefficient. As noted last week, he ranked at or near the bottom in several advanced metrics.

In Week 4, Swift ranked 10th in rushing efficiency among ball carriers with at least 10 rushing attempts [all rankings are prior to Monday night’s doubleheader], according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That efficiency rating essentially tells us how much of a north-south runner the ball carrier is. Swift spent less time dancing in the backfield during Sunday’s win. His 36-yard touchdown run certainly must’ve helped that metric.

Swift spent just 2.76 seconds behind the line of scrimmage, on average. That was fourth-best among ball carriers in Week 4.

It might also be notable that 81.3% of Swift’s rushing attempts in Week 4 came with the quarterback under center. That was 20% more than his previous high mark. The Bears were running Swift less out of shotgun formations. Was that the game script [the Bears were playing from ahead] or something the team thought it could exploit better?

Swift’s good game also came while facing more stacked boxes from the defense than he has seen all year. The Rams had eight or more defenders in the box on 31.3% of his rushing attempts.

Swift played better Sunday, and the numbers support that.

An opportunity ahead?

The cynical Bears fans will say that they beat up on one of the NFL’s worst defenses Sunday. They’re not wrong.

But there’s also something to be said for winning the games you’re supposed to win. The Bears just entered a highly favorable stretch. During this stretch from Week 4 to Week 10, the Bears will face six of the bottom nine NFL defenses in terms of EPA per play (expected points added). Those would be the Rams, Panthers, Jaguars, Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots.

They also are six of the nine worst defenses in terms of total yards allowed per game [prior to Monday’s games].

With a 2-2 record, there’s a chance for the Bears to go on a run here in the middle part of the schedule before the division games begin in mid-November. The offense needs to keep beating up on bad defenses.

Quarterback rewind

Per Next Gen Stats, Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was a perfect 15 for 15 on passes that went fewer than 15 yards through the air. On passes of 15 yards or more, Williams was just 2 for 7. His touchdown pass to receiver DJ Moore was among those two completions beyond 15 yards.

Interestingly, on the season, Williams has the second-fastest time to throw on completions at 2.33 seconds, but the eighth-longest time to throw on incompletions at 3.30 seconds. When Williams gets the ball out fast, he’s hitting his targets. The more time he spends with the ball in his hands, the less success he’s having.

Now, that’s probably true of a lot of young quarterbacks. Williams was a high-level passer when scrambling in college. That aspect of his game has yet to translate to the regular season. The good news Sunday was that he didn’t really need to scramble.

Williams ranked 10th among qualified quarterbacks in Week 4 with 2.98 seconds to throw per drop back.

Breakout game?

Rookie punter Tory Taylor pinned the Rams inside the 20-yard line three times Sunday. Taylor has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line nine times in four games.

That’s tied for the fifth-most pins inside the 20. He’s pinning the opponent inside the 20 on 45% of his punts, which ranks 15th among qualified punters.

A year ago, former Bears punter Trenton Gill pinned opponents inside the 20 just 18 times in 17 games. His 27% pin rate was among the worst in the league. Taylor has been a clear upgrade at the punter position. That’s exactly why the Bears spent a fourth-round draft pick on a punter.

Taylor’s 55.4 yards per punt during Sunday’s game marked the third-highest total by a Bears punter since at least 1960 (minimum four punts). Only Pat O’Donnell did better in a single game, twice, once in 2019 at Denver and once in 2021 at Cleveland.

Big Bill

Bears defensive tackle Andrew Billings has generated eight pressures this season, per Next Gen Stats. That is tied for the team lead.

He has averaged 2.36 seconds to create pressures on the season, which is quicker than Bears edge rushers Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor.

Billings might be the most underrated player on the defense. He’s more than just a space eater. The metrics indicate he’s the team’s secret weapon in the pass rush.

Tight end leaderboard

Tight end Cole Kmet caught three more passes Sunday. His 18 receptions on the season rank third among NFL tight ends behind only Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert and Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers. Kmet’s 162 receiving yards rank fourth among tight ends through four games.

Speaking of tight ends, Bears tight end Marcedes Lewis set the NFL record for most games by a tight end with his 272nd regular season game Sunday. He passed longtime Cowboys tight end Jason Witten, who appeared in 271 games.