Bear Down, Nerd Up: Here’s how Thomas Brown made things easier for Caleb Williams vs. Green Bay

Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Thomas Brown made some notable changes in his first week in charge of the offense. He made life easier on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

That appears to have led to a more efficient offense during Sunday’s loss, 20-19, at Soldier Field. That’s especially notable because Green Bay’s defense was no walk in the park. The Packers ranked in the top 10 in numerous defensive categories.

Here’s a look at what the Bears did differently Sunday.

A quick release

Brown had Williams releasing the ball much more quickly. Williams released the football on average in 2.42 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was his fastest mark of the season.

A combination of a quick release and a healthier offensive line led to fewer hits on the quarterback. Williams faced only eight pressures all game long. The Packers’ 20.5% pressure rate was the lowest by a Bears opponent all season. It resulted in only three sacks.

Brown schemed up short, quick routes for Williams’ targets. Williams completed 19 of his 22 pass attempts that were fewer than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He was 5-for-6 on passes behind the line of scrimmage. A week earlier against New England, Williams attempted only one pass behind the line of scrimmage.

A combination of the short passing game and a successful run game seemed to open things up in the deeper areas too. Against New England, Williams didn’t complete a single pass beyond 10 yards down field. He was 0-for-5 on passes that went 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Against Green Bay, he was 4-for-9 for 74 yards on passes that went 10 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

QB on the run

The rookie quarterback was highly efficient running with the football. He ran for 70 yards on nine carries.

Williams’ “expected points added” as a runner was the second-highest of any NFL player in Week 11 (pending “Monday Night Football”), behind only New Orleans tight end Taysom Hill.

Williams’ EPA per rush was plus-9.7. Hill, who rushed for 19.7 yards per carry with rushing three touchdown, was plus-12.8. Williams ran for 20 more yards than expected, per Next Gen Stats’ models.

Williams and Hill recorded two of the three most dominant single-game performances of the NFL season, in terms of EPA per rush. The other was Tampa Bay running back Sean Tucker’s Week 6 performance, when he notched a plus-10.2 EPA per rush while running for 136 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against New Orleans.

Rookie comparison

Bo Nix and the Broncos demolished the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Nix, the No. 12 pick in the draft, threw for 307 yards and four touchdowns. Nix has the Broncos sitting at 6-5 and in playoff contention.

Just for fun, let’s check in with all three rookie first-round picks who have played a full slate of 11 games. New England’s Drake Maye sat the first month of the season, so his numbers are not quite as complete. Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy will miss the entire season with a knee injury, while Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. is stuck behind Kirk Cousins on the depth chart.

Here are stat lines for Nix, Williams and Washington’s Jayden Daniels:

Williams is zeroing in on the Bears rookie passing record. Mitchell Trubisky set the record in 2017 with 2,193 passing yards. Daniels and Nix both have more passing yards and more passing touchdowns than Williams, plus a better completion percentage and a better record.

Williams had a rough couple games against Arizona and New England, but he’s not really that far behind his contemporaries in any of these metrics.

What about some of the advanced metrics?

What should fans take away from these numbers? What jumps out to me, of course, is Daniels’ EPA per dropback. It’s not just the best among the rookies, but it’s among the best in the NFL. EPA per dropback does include a QB’s scrambling yards and touchdowns, so it tends to favor rushing QBs (Lamar Jackson leads the league in this metric).

Notably, Williams is taking more deep shots. I was surprised to see Daniels’ deep shot percentage is so low because you hear a lot about how good his deep ball is. But the Commanders are being choosy about when to unleash it.

Williams is facing far more pressure than Daniels or Nix. The Bears offensive line has been a mess. On top of that, Williams’ passing targets are slightly less open. Those two things largely are out of his control.

Do a few extra yards matter?

Head coach Matt Eberflus on Monday stood by his decision to run out the final 30 seconds before sending out kicker Cairo Santos for a 46-yard try to win the game. Eberflus elected not to try to gain a few more yards. Speaking on Monday, he doubled down on that decision.

He had confidence in Santos to nail the 46-yard try. Rightfully so. Santos is the most accurate field goal kicker in Bears history. His 89.4% career field goal mark is four percentage points better than Robbie Gould’s 85.4% mark.

Still, a few yards might have made a difference. Since returning to the Bears in 2020, Santos is 70-for-70 on field goal tries inside the 40-yard line. It’s worth pointing out that he has missed 10 of his 147 extra point attempts, which are the equivalent of a 33-yard field goal.

In that same time span, Santos is 36-for-44 on kicks from 40-49 yards (including Sunday’s block). He’s 20-for-26 on kicks from 50 yards and beyond.

It’s fair to wonder if a few more yards would’ve made a difference, but there’s also no guarantee the Bears would gain yards if they ran one more play. It’s always tougher when the defense knows what an offense is thinking.

Lots of losing

Sunday’s loss marked the Bears’ fourth consecutive L. The Bears have had a losing streak of at least four games in every season since 2018. That includes the final three years under Matt Nagy and all three seasons under Eberflus.

Eberflus is now 14-30 as the head coach of the Bears. The Bears are 5-17 in games decided by one possession (eight points or less) under Eberflus.