Is Caleb Williams ready for Brian Flores’ all-out blitz approach?

LAKE FOREST – A year ago, when the Chicago Bears had their first matchup against the Minnesota Vikings in mid-October, the team talked all week about how they were preparing to face the Vikings’ heavy blitz rate.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, in his first season with Minnesota last year, blitzed at a higher rate than any other defense in the NFL. Yet, even after talking about it all week long, the Bears allowed a blitzing defender to go completely unblocked on the first play of the game, sacking quarterback Justin Fields. The Vikings sacked Fields four times that day and knocked him out of the game with a dislocated thumb.

Talking about the blitz is one thing. Executing against it is another.

A year later, the Bears have their first matchup against the Vikings on Sunday at Soldier Field. Flores’ defense once again leads the NFL in blitz rate, sending an extra pass rusher on 37.7% of defensive plays.

The Bears have a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams who will be facing the Vikings for the first time. Preparing for the blitz is paramount if the Bears want to win this game.

“He’s going to blitz you,” Williams said of Flores. “He’s the king of Cover Zero blitz.”

Cover Zero indicates that the defense doesn’t have any extra safety help on the back end. The Vikings are OK with sending a few extra defenders at the quarterback even if it means leaving the defensive backs in one-on-one coverage.

In his first 10 games, Williams has faced a 30.7% blitz rate. The No. 1 overall draft pick has fared pretty well against the blitz. While the pressure rate is – not surprisingly – higher against the blitz, his passer rating is nearly identical, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Williams has an 82.5 rating vs. no blitz, compared to an 81.7 rating against the blitz. His completion percentage is worse against the blitz, but only barely (63% vs. no blitz compared to 58.9% vs. the blitz).

“It starts with his natural ability,” head coach Matt Eberflus said of his quarterback. “His natural ability is to get the ball out fast. Some players don’t have that ability, right? They take it. Their release is slow. But his is very fast. I think it helps him. The recognition, the way we set it up on offense will help him also. And it’s just identifying it before the snap, but also it’s natural ability to get the ball out.”

It starts with his natural ability. His natural ability is to get the ball out fast.”

—  Matt Eberflus, Bears quarterback

Last week against Green Bay, the Bears created more short, quick opportunities for Williams in the passing game. That’s probably going to be the recipe this week against a heavy blitz defense.

“It starts throughout the week, understanding where and when your hot routes are going to be,” Williams said. “For instance, there’s going to be times where you may have to hold the ball and just stay in there, meaning that you don’t have any hot routes on some plays. Then there’s going to be plays where you do have hot routes or there’s going to be sight adjustments. ... You just have to know where they are and you have to feel and see the blitz.”

The Vikings’ top blitz rate has led to QB hurries on 10.1% of quarterback dropbacks, per Pro Football Reference. That ranks tied for fifth in the NFL. They also have a league-leading 46 QB knockdowns, which tracks how often the QB hits the ground after a throw. Hurrying the QB has resulted in the league’s best interception rate at 4.34% of opponents’ pass attempts.

As if all that wasn’t bad enough, the Vikings sport the NFL’s best run defense, allowing only 74.4 rushing yards per game.

Playing a defense like this takes everyone on the offense. If the offensive line isn’t doing its job, Williams will be in trouble. If the quarterback isn’t reading the defense properly, everyone will struggle. If the receivers aren’t hitting their routes quickly, the timing could be off.

“They bring a lot of people,” receiver DJ Moore said. “You’ve got to have answers for it. I mean, they’re beatable in their coverages, but if you miss, they’re getting home.”