Some things we file under “facts don’t care about your feelings” while others go under “We both have truths, are mine the same as yours?”
And some things, like crime statistics, land in both categories.
WGN-TV quoted state Sen. Terri Bryant, R-Murphysboro, on the record at this week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, regarding Chicago Police Department statistics showing shooting and homicide reports at their lowest since 2019.
“I would suggest they’re cooking the books. I would like to see what their data is, because perception is reality, simply because you’re the person who’s living there. And when you have to sleep with a firearm next to your bed, or you have to walk around worried about whether you can safely walk on a street, the data cannot possibly be right.”
The good news – especially for anyone who doesn’t have time for the 330-mile drive from Bryant’s 58th District Senate office to CPD’s downtown headquarters – is the treasure trove of information posted at home.chicagopolice.org/statistics-data/statistical-reports. The 2023 annual report clears 215 pages and is just a few drops in a huge bucket of accessible history dating back almost six decades.
But the landing page also hints at some of the challenges of applying this data: Since 2011 CPD has used CompStat crime totals, which overlap with Uniform Crime Reporting categories, and some of the discrepancies in the purpose of each system can be confusing to outsiders. Not misleading, or at least not intentionally, but confusing.
Similarly useful is a Pew Research Center crime data study from April (tinyurl.com/PewCrimeData), which addresses both the most recent numbers and how they compare to public perception. That piece begins by acknowledging that “the two primary sources of government crime statistics – the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Bureau of Justice Statistics – paint an incomplete picture.”
FBI numbers come only from reported crimes. Further, many agencies don’t share data with the feds. And the scope covers “a handful of specific violent and property crimes, but not many other types of crime, such as drug crime,” which doesn’t begin addressing the underplayed world of financial crime or regulatory violations that definitely involve lawbreaking but rarely cause people to sleep near a shotgun.
Bryant’s book-cooking allegations, while short on specifics, aren’t impossible to accept in light of developments like the National Retail Federation’s Dec. 1 announcement it was completely walking back an April 2023 report about the scope of organized retail crime.
Shaking people from closely held beliefs is difficult, especially when trusted sources deliver reinforcement. Broad data helps us see beyond narrow personal experiences, but only when we choose to look.
Ultimately, I agree with Bryant: we should all dig into the statistics and further the conversation toward understanding the truth.
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. Follow him on X @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.
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