It’s the first day of August. The November election is about 14 weeks away, and in addition to the usual state fair campaign buzz, this month also brings a national political convention to Chicago.
As such, it seems a fitting time for another installment of Election Math, a quick rundown of General Assembly races to project the likeliness of meaningful change.
Usually, I follow that sentence with this one: Although the ballot could still change with resignations, deaths, expulsions and so on (it’s hard to rule out anything in Illinois), in the larger sense the stakes are established.
While that remains true, in this cycle we’re also still waiting on a judge to rule on whether several candidates are actually allowed on the ballot, as explained in Wednesday’s column. With a bias toward as many contests as possible, the following math proceeds with the assumption of a ruling in the challengers’ favor, while also including write-in efforts regardless of viability.
Democrats currently control both chambers, holding a 40-19 Senate majority and a 78-40 House margin.
Of the 59 Senate seats, only 23 are up for election. Of the remaining 36, Democrats have 21 and Republicans 15. That means Democrats are nine away from maintaining their majority.
Of the 23 active races, nine are uncontested, with a 5-4 Democrat edge. That brings the baseline total to 26-19. The 14 contested races all have incumbent Democrats. Without analyzing the viability of any of those challengers, the basic math shows Democrats need to defend four seats to maintain a majority but run the table to hold their supermajority.
On the House side, all 118 seats are on the ballot; 53 are uncontested with a 29-24 Democrat advantage. Democrats currently hold 49 contested seats and Republicans have 16. So the GOP needs to defend everyone (16-0) and go 20-29 in blue districts for a one-vote majority.
That’s not especially likely, but at this stage in 2020, the GOP had nominated so few House candidates it would’ve had to finish 51-4 in contested races to regain control. In 2022, the summer math showed Republicans needed to win 31 of 60.
In addition to overlooking the statistical probability of any individual race, these calculations don’t factor in the influence of minority party candidates, who have struggled to gain even a modest foothold. It also doesn’t consider the actual candidates. Some veterans chose retirement, others lost primaries and some “incumbents” are freshly appointed.
So even if the math shakes out in the Democrats’ favor, new people are headed to Springfield, which means new committee assignments and potential leadership changes. Those adjustments can dictate how business is conducted and how parties respond to constituent influence.
Plan now to be an educated voter.
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. Follow him on X @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.
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