I’m neither moving out of Illinois nor accused of a violent crime. Yet I can’t shake statistics about outmigration and pretrial detention and how my perceptions might color the raw data.
On Tuesday, Wirepoints published research showing “the loss of Illinois’ young, wealthy, upwardly mobile, taxpaying millennials,” specifically IRS data from the 2022 tax year that showed a net migration figure of 1,323 households in the 26-35 age bracket with at least $200,000 in annual income. That’s the second worst number nationwide, behind California (3,226) but ahead of Massachusetts (1,102), New York (345) and Pennsylvania (320).
The top five gaining states are Washington (383), North Carolina (521), Colorado (720), Texas (1,660) and Florida (1,786). We’re not talking about large swaths of people. But Wirepoints said the figure represents “4% of Illinois’ young, high-earning households in just one year,” noted trends going back to 2012 and said the adjusted gross income for households leaving in 2022 was $435,000.
Perhaps those statistics reflect your lived experience, but that likely depends on which of our 1,500-plus ZIP codes you call home. Surely each household has its own story, gross income is only one indicator of wealth and doesn’t directly impact societal value, etc., but big-picture numbers are useful at least as discussion starters.
On Wednesday, CBS Chicago covered the approaching one-year anniversary of Illinois ending cash bail, saying violent and property crimes are down over 12 months. Although 15% of criminal defendants missed a court appearance, the old system rate was 17%. Urban and suburban jail populations are down around 14% while in rural counties the drop is closer to 25%.
The negative impacts are reverberating not on the streets but in courtrooms and county offices, where millions of dollars in bond payments are now off the books and pretrial detention hearings are taking longer, from legal arguments to judicial explanations.
I spend a lot more time thinking about home sales than how much a DUI suspect had to pay in order to go home until trial begins, but that’s largely because I see Realtor signs far more often than speeding squad cars. Conversely, in newsroom days we got a lot more calls about the police blotter than real estate listings.
Ultimately, I’m engaging in self-reflection. I appreciate readers’ indulgence! Seeing people wielding the Wirepoints report was frustrating because it doesn’t square with my perception of Illinois on the fiscal rebound. Yet the pretrial stats validate my position on reform while acknowledging I’m not affected as a suspect or victim.
We can’t make policy choices based only on what we personally encounter. But we also know macro data is only a starting point toward functional government. Balance and perspective are essential.
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. Follow him on X @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/shawmedia/55aeee77-0609-4323-931a-c6686fff01e6.png)