November 05, 2024
Editorials

Historic Highlights: Until recently, presidential races weren’t that close

Many ranged from decisive to lopsided, though some were nail-biters

By Tom Emery

Blowouts in presidential elections seem like a thing of the past, as five of the six races in this millennium were decided by close, even razor-thin, margins.

It wasn’t always like that. Throughout American history, a surprising number of presidential races have been decisive, even lopsided.

While the country is evenly, and deeply, divided today, Americans of the past usually made their presidential preferences quite clear.

Until 2000, there had only been three presidential elections where the loser received 200 or more electoral votes (1916, 1960, 1976). It’s happened in five of the last six, with 2008 as the lone exception.

(It must be noted, however, that with fewer states in the Union, fewer electoral votes were available).

Many of the races in the mid-20th century were blowouts. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the only president to serve four terms, won handily in all of his elections from 1932-44, never collecting fewer than 432 electoral votes.

New York Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democratic candidate for president, holds some of the telegrams of congratulations he received on his victory in the election, Nov. 8, 1932. His wife Eleanor reads over his shoulder at their quarters at New York's Biltmore Hotel, after the governor received word of his overwhelming victory at the polls.

New York Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt, the Democratic candidate for president, holds some of the telegrams of congratulations he received on his victory in the election, Nov. 8, 1932. His wife Eleanor reads over his shoulder at their quarters at New York's Biltmore Hotel, after the governor received word of his overwhelming victory at the polls. (AP file photo/AP)

His 1936 reelection was one of the biggest landslides in American history, as he blasted his opponent, Kansas governor Alf Landon, 523-8 in the Electoral College. Roosevelt earned 61% of the popular vote, while Landon had just 37%.

It was much the same in the 1950s, as war hero Dwight David Eisenhower was matched with Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson in both 1952 and 1956, with lopsided outcomes. In the first meeting, Eisenhower won the popular vote with 55% and took home 442 electoral votes.

The next president and the next first lady of the United States, Dwight D. and Mamie Eisenhower, shown in New York City on Nov. 5, 1952, after victory in the election was assured. They are listening to the great ovation from the campaign workers crowding the Grand Ballroom of the Commodore Hotel where they appeared after Gov. Adlai Stevenson conceded defeat.

Dwight Eisenhower, Mamie Eisenhower The next president and the next first lady of the United States, Dwight D. and Mamie Eisenhower, shown in New York City on Nov. 5, 1952, after victory in the election was assured. They are listening to the great ovation from the campaign workers crowding the Grand Ballroom of the Commodore Hotel where they appeared after Gov. Adlai Stevenson conceded defeat. (AP file photo/AP)

The second time was even worse, as “Ike” collected 57% of the popular vote and 457 electoral votes.

In 1964, incumbent Lyndon Baines Johnson rode a Democratic wave to shred Barry Goldwater with 61% of the popular vote and a 486-52 bulge in the Electoral College.

The 1980s are seen as a go-go decade, and most presidential elections were runaways. In 1980, California governor Ronald Reagan swept into office with a 489-49 electoral advantage over unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Four years later, Reagan’s reelection was never in doubt as he collected the most electoral votes in American history, a 525-13 wipeout of former vice-president Walter Mondale. Reagan won 49 of 50 states.

Reagan’s vice president, George H.W. Bush, then won his term in 1988 by rallying from a 17-point deficit against Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis in one of the biggest turnarounds of any presidential race. Bush finally held a 426-111 advantage in the Electoral College after winning the popular vote 54-46.

Though news of a break-in at the Watergate complex in Washington had broken in June 1972, most Americans didn’t seem to care that November and handed Richard Nixon one of the largest victories in history, a 520-17 electoral bulge over South Dakota senator George McGovern. Like Reagan in 1984, Nixon won 49 states.

Even Harry Truman’s unexpected win in 1948, defined by the Chicago Tribune headline prediction of “Dewey Defeats Truman,” wasn’t that close. Truman won by over 2.1 million votes and held a 303-189 advantage in the Electoral College.

In this Nov. 4, 1948, file photo, President Harry S. Truman at St. Louis' Union Station holds up an election day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which – based on early results – mistakenly announced "Dewey Defeats Truman."

Harry Truman In this Nov. 4, 1948, file photo, President Harry S. Truman at St. Louis' Union Station holds up an election day edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune, which – based on early results – mistakenly announced "Dewey Defeats Truman." (AP file photo/AP)

However, there have been some barnburners, at least before 2000. In 1880, Republican James Garfield took on Democrat Winfield Scott Hancock in a matchup of former Civil War generals, and the results were razor thin.

Each won 19 states, and Garfield held a tiny advantage in the popular vote, with less than 10,000 of nearly 9 million votes cast. Garfield, though, won where it counted, taking the big states for a 214-155 Electoral College victory.

That was the beginning of a run of close ones throughout the 1880s. Four years later, Democrat Grover Cleveland won his first term over former Maine senator James Blaine by one percentage point, and a 219-182 Electoral College edge. Cleveland took 20 states, while Blaine won 18.

The 1844 race was also a tight one, as Democrat James Polk beat Whig Henry Clay by 38,000 of 2.6 million votes cast, winning 15 of 26 states.

• Tom Emery is a freelance writer and historical researcher from Carlinville, Illinois. He may be reached at 217-710-8392 or ilcivilwar@yahoo.com.

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