Eye On Illinois: Again, revenue projections versus spending goals paint less than rosy picture

Anyone got a spare $3 billion?

You might’ve missed it among all the election news over the last week, but on Nov. 1 the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget submitted its annual Economic and Fiscal Policy report. The 17-page document (tinyurl.com/GOMB2024) is full of figures, but one that grabbed headlines is a projection for estimated expenditures in fiscal 2026, which begins July 1, 2025, “would exceed revenues by $3.173 billion.”

In some corners this is cause for alarm, or at least a chance to score political points at the expense of the Democratic governor who has had stout General Assembly majorities throughout his tenure.

“This guy’s spending like a drunk sailor for the first six years of his governorship,” state Sen. Chapin Rose, R-Mahomet, told WBEZ. “Here we are.”

The governor’s office strikes a predictably different tone, with the GOMB report including a chart showing annual estimates (big red bars showing projected deficits) balanced against actual performance (blue bars going the other direction). Those blue bars have gotten shorter with each cycle, but the intended message is clear:

“While a daunting challenge to balance spending pressures in the face of a flat revenue outlook, the governor remains committed to taking steps to further improve Illinois’ fiscal position and address any potential budgetary shortfalls that may arise – as has been done every year since he took office in 2019. The ability to fund new programs will be severely limited … the governor and General Assembly have demonstrated a commitment to addressing fiscal year shortfalls.”

Finding politicians to assess the report through partisan prisms is simple. And by all means, listen to those folks if only to better analyze different approaches to attacking problems. But also understand projections are just that: estimates given current knowledge built on an imperfect model.

The chart showing numbers coming in better than expected of late could point to economic volatility attributed to factors far beyond what Illinoisans could control. Or it could mean the GOMB needs to run its numbers better so the margin of error is closer to six or seven figures than nine or 10.

Illinois isn’t facing a $3 billion deficit. With more than eight months remaining in the current fiscal year and pencils barely sharpened on the fiscal 2026 budget, there remains plenty of time for better data and more informed choices.

Yet it’s also true that if tax revenue – especially sales tax – underperforms compared to recent history, lawmakers will face budget cuts, shifting priorities and alternative revenue streams. That doesn’t mean higher taxes, but all options are on the table until they aren’t.

Leaders can, should and will heed these estimates. Keep them in mind as campaigning gives way to governing.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. Follow him on X @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.