Eye On Illinois: CoGFA reports get taxpayers out in front of politicians’ motivated interpretations

Today’s state government tip: Get out your internet browsers and bookmark cgfa.ilga.gov.

If you’ve been paying attention to the online home of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability since the beginning of the year, you’d already be familiar with two documents that will prove essential to understanding vital Statehouse discussions this spring.

The first, from Jan. 8, is an actuarial analysis of House Bill 5909. CoGFA requested the impact study from Chicago-based Segal, and the result is a 27-page overview of one set of proposals to address the Tier 2 public pension structure, which applies to state employees hired since Jan. 1, 2011.

The bill, which died last session, proposed four major changes, so Segal analyzed each independently while also tabulating the total projected impact if everything took effect. Politically the easiest thing to do is update the salary cap for Tier 2 employees so it equals the Social Security Wage Base, as this likely needs to happen to keep Illinois in line with federal law.

The other three changes represent concessions organized labor has been trying to reverse since their initial implementation. Since it’s easy to find interest groups chanting “Fix Tier 2″ or others who assert “We can’t afford it,” the dispassionate description CoGFA got from Segal is a useful tool to understand the building blocks of those talking points. Read it yourself at tinyurl.com/Tier2CoGFA.

The second dropped Friday afternoon. Titled “2024 Illinois’ National Rankings,” the 70-page document compares our state to the rest of the country in 23 categories covering tax rates and revenues, government spending and employment trends (tinyurl.com/Rankings2024).

CoGFA first issued this report in 2001, and each update is essential to informing legislators’ conversations about the state’s direction. Because Illinois remains the sixth-largest state by population – the report puts Census reports in their deserved analytical light – the report includes not just total dollar rankings but also per capita breakdowns, which theoretically enable more fair comparisons to our neighbors with far fewer people.

For example, state and local government expenditures in 2022 were $167.3 billion, fifth in the country. But the amount spent per resident was $13,299, which is 18th and yet fairly close to the national average of $12,903. But it also was the most of any Midwestern state, which ranges from Iowa at 22nd place ($12,716 per capita) all the way down to Missouri at 44th ($9,933).

Presenting the numbers in different ways, and highlighting neighbors on each table, adds useful context. The fact that the report has 23 categories shows the many different prisms through which raw numbers become political perspectives.

Reading these charts directly is superior to politicians dictating interpretation. CoGFA is bipartisan and level-headed – a great resource for being informed and involved constituents.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. Follow him on X @sth749. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.