Eye On Illinois: Don’t be shocked if online gambling licensing floated as budget booster

Although the 104th General Assembly began its two-year term six weeks ago, today’s budget address from Gov. JB Pritzker is arguably a more significant starting point for the legislative process.

Whatever the governor proposes in his seventh bite at this apple will set the tone for the most important conversations of the next few months heading into legislative timelines with respect to fiscal 2026 fiscal and a projected revenue shortfall of at least $3 billion.

For an analytical preview of the broader issues, catch up with Ben Szalinski’s Capitol News Illinois breakdown at tinyurl.com/FY26budgetIL.

I try to stay away from predictions, especially in the political sphere, an expected outcome from a couple of decades of guessing wrong more than right. So I’m not saying Pritzker will consider my next idea … but maybe he should.

Just before the Super Bowl I wrote about the continued explosion of the legal sports betting market, which included a bit on how the budget for the current fiscal year benefits from an adjusted gross revenue system for taxing casinos. The leading books, DraftKings and FanDuel, loudly opposed the plan and threatened to take drastic action, but ultimately are paying the higher rates and continuing to make tidy profits on the backs of our state’s sports gamblers.

But the landscape evolves. The Chicago Sun-Times reported Friday on the people who drive from Missouri to Illinois so they can legally bet through smartphone apps, a trend likely to end when the Show Me State starts issuing licenses later this year thanks to a referendum that passed in November.

But hark, a new frontier beckons: Senate Bill 1963 and House Bill 3080, each introduced Feb. 6, make up the Internet Gaming Act, which could make Illinois the eighth state to license online casinos and the ninth to endorse online poker games for real money.

There is much to be said about details – respect for casinos already doing business in Illinois, the licensing process, tax rates, potential membership in the Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement and more – but the basics are self-evident: in the Pritzker years, when choosing between cutting services or increasing revenue, the leading choice is always extra income, and all the better f it can be squeezed from people happy to leave the black market behind.

After the financial success of sports betting and recreational marijuana – neither without drawbacks, but this is a dollars discussion – it seems only natural to add online poker to the mix. Introducing another tax on the willing is far more politically popular than blanket fees and rate adjustments affecting everyone, and not just because potential side effects are further downstream.

This expansion wouldn’t yield $3 billion, but it still carries significant potential.

• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.