A Piece of Dixon History: Why Lee County votes Republican

DIXON — Has Lee County always voted Republican? Why is it so hard for a local Democrat to get elected?

To answer these questions, I researched Lee County results for all 42 presidential elections from 2020 back to 1856 when the Republican Party began. Since we are now in the peak moments of the 2024 presidential election campaign, my research may provide some timely nonpartisan perspective for voters and party leaders.

Only three exceptions, but …

Since 1856, the Republican presidential candidate always gained more than 50% of the Lee County vote, with only three exceptions: 1912, 1992, and 1996. Yet, in those three elections, the Democratic candidate still did not win the most votes in the county.

Why? In each case, a third-party candidate, who had identified as a Republican in other years, diluted the number of votes for the official Republican candidate. Those three third-party candidates were Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (the Bull Moose Party) and Ross Perot in the 1992 and 1996 races.

Are local Republicans losing strength?

For the first six presidential elections between 1856 and 1876, an average of 66% of Lee County voted for the Republican candidate, and 34% voted for the Democratic candidate. Yet, four of these six races involved Illinois residents Lincoln and Grant, who were popular here.

However, for the six most-recent presidential elections between 2000 and 2020, an average of 56% of the county voted for the Republican candidate, while 42% voted for the Democratic candidate. The recent strength of the Republican vote is markedly different from the Reagan years, when Dixon’s favorite son attracted 74% of Lee County’s vote in 1980 and again in 1984.

Democrats rising

But overall, the tendency for Lee County to vote Republican is decreasing. Throughout the 11 Republican vs. Democrat elections in the 1800s, an average of 63% of Lee County voters chose the Republican candidate and 37% voted Democrat.

But, for the six elections in the 2000s, only 56% of the county voted for the Republican candidate, while 42% voted for the Democrat. So, over the last 164 years, Republican strength has dropped from 63% to 56%, while Democratic strength has increased from 37% to 42%.

Why was Lee County so Republican?

So, why did Lee County have so many Republicans in the 1800s? The first reason is the influence of the Dixon Evening Telegraph. Ever since this newspaper was launched in May of 1851, its editorial position has been openly Republican. This was especially true in the 1800s when newspapers were commonly aligned with a particular political party.

B. F. Shaw, the newspaper’s long-time editor and publisher, was an ardent Republican who frequently published his support for Republican candidates and causes. He was even instrumental in establishing the Illinois Republican party in 1856. Being the primary newspaper in Lee County from 1851 until his death in 1909, he had significant influence on the political leanings of the county.

The nor’easter effect

The second reason stems from the geographic roots of Lee County citizens. A large majority of Lee County settlers from 1830 to 1850 came from the northeastern states from Ohio to Maine. That region was strongly anti-slavery, the hallmark doctrine of the Republican Party.

These northeastern states became the bedrock for the emerging Republican Party of the 1850s. So, the people who established Lee County were leaning toward Republican values before they even arrived here.

The Lincoln effect

The popularity of Abraham Lincoln, the first Republican president, is a third reason for Lee County’s strong Republican leanings in the 1800s. Lincoln visited this county several times in his career, he had several friends in Dixon, and he famously spoke on the Lee County Courthouse lawn in July of 1856, stumping for John C. Fremont, the first Republican presidential candidate.

Even though Lincoln was already a local favorite in the 1860 and 1864 elections (with 69% of the vote), his popularity leaped to mythical status after his assassination. In subsequent decades, Dixon’s Lincoln Statue (erected 1930), Lincoln Memorial Bridge (1939), Lincoln School (1937), Lincoln Avenue, and Lincoln Way (1915) would all testify to admiration of our 16th president.

The rural effect

These factors explain local Republican popularity of 150 years ago, but what about today? All those Republican supporters of that bygone era have died. Why do Republican sentiments exist today? I offer two reasons. The first is “the rural effect.”

In America’s political landscape of today, it is undeniably true that the vast majority of rural counties tend to vote Republican, while most large city and urban areas vote Democratic. The common U.S. maps that show red counties (Republican) and blue counties (Democrat) prove this dichotomy.

Urban and rural environments, with their differing neighborhood densities and differing levels of education and religious commitment, produce different societal problems and political priorities. Lee County is clearly a rural red county.

The parental effect

The second reason is “the parental effect.” As several studies have shown, a large percentage of people tend to align politically with their parents. When a person votes for the first time, being overwhelmed with the complexity of issues such as the economy, taxation, job creation, immigration, and foreign policy, they will likely vote the same way that “dear old dad” voted.

I suggest that this is why Lee County – and almost any county – continues to vote like it did 50 and 100 years ago.

If I were pressed to predict the future political map of Lee County, I would guess that its Democratic leanings will only increase. Why? Lee County’s rural character is decreasing. Parental influence is decreasing. The influence of local newspapers is decreasing. And the power of “the Reagan effect” will likely gradually decrease.

I only hope that the political polarization of the community will also decrease.

• Dixon native Tom Wadsworth is a writer, speaker and occasional historian. He holds a Ph.D. in New Testament.