Year of transition: Survey finds farmland values softening

BLOOMINGTON, Ill. — The multiyear streak of farmland value increases ended in 2024, according to a report by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.

Details of the annual ISPFMRA report based on statewide survey data were released March 26 at the Illinois Land Values Conference.

“2024 was a year of transition. We did finally see some softening in the land market and some downward pressure on rental agreements,” said Luke Worrell of Worrell Land Services in Jacksonville and overall survey chair.

“The streak ends. It’s the first time since 2019 that we haven’t seen an increase in Class A (excellent) land. It’s the first time since 2018 we haven’t seen an increase in Class B (good) land.”

The survey is broken down into sales based on farmland quality. Excellent quality farmland averages over 220 bushels of corn per acre in a normal year with a soil productivity index of 133 or higher.

Good quality farmland averages 200 to 220 bushels per acre, with a soil PI of 117 to 132. Average quality farmland averages 180 to 200 bushels per acre with a soil PI of 100 to 116 and no irrigation.

Fair quality farmland averages below 180 bushels per acre and has a soil PI under 100. Recreational land is also included.

The survey is conducted annually by members of the ISPFMRA. The state is divided into 10 geographic regions and team members collect and summarize sales activity and other factors occurring in the individual regions during the year.

There is a summary of all the regional entries in the book that’s available on the society’s website.

For excellent productivity land, the average statewide sales price of completed sales dropped by 3.29% from $16,906 per acre in 2023 to $16,359 in 2024. Good quality farmland decline 0.79% from $12,726 in 2023 to $12,626 in 2024.

Illinois’ average farmland values increased by 4.45% from $9,544 in 2023 to $9,978 in 2024. However, this compares to an upward statewide average jump of 14.82% for the same type of property from 2020 to 2024.

Recreational land increased 2.27% from $5,325 per acre in 2023 to last year’s $5,448 on average statewide.

“What was fascinating to me is average and recreational land all showed strength or stability across all of the regions. That was an interesting data point that quite honestly a lot of us didn’t expect,” Worrell said.

“We’re so used to excellent land kind of leading the charge one way or the other. I just assumed everything was going to be down, but we didn’t see that when we looked at all of 2024 data.”

Headwinds

The farmland values report data ends in December 2024 when there were signs the farmland market began to experience headwinds.

“As you read the report, the last quarter of 2024 was especially telling. That is the point at which we truly saw the most softening and it became apparent the market was beginning to shift,” Worrell said.

“The overall 2024 results would have looked drastically different if we had only looked at the last quarter of the year.”

To dig deeper into the trends in the first quarter of 2025, Worrell contacted representatives from throughout the state asking what they’re experiencing in their geographies.

“I reached out to 10 professionals who I greatly respect to check the temperature of the first quarter of 2025, and I asked their opinion as to where they thought we were here as we meet in March, not necessarily at the end of December,” he said.

“The 2024 data is what it is, but I think we can all agree that we regressed a little bit more in the first half of 2025. So, I asked them off of the top end of their region’s excellent quality acreage, how far have we gone down? Of the 10 responses, pretty much every one of them said between 7% and 15% off of the highs.

“2024 was a year of transition.”

—  Luke Worrell, co-owner, Worrell Land Services

“Those changes have continued here in the early stages of 2025. Many areas have seen continued unpredictability in the land market. Sure, there will always be those strong sales that get the neighborhood talking, but by and large the market has continued to be erratic and slowly work its way downward.

“I think we’ll continue to see a little bit of softening throughout the year, subject to change. As volatility is so commonplace, things can change pretty quickly.”

There has also been somewhat of a shift in the way farmland is sold.

“For a few years it was pretty easy just to put everything up on the auction block. The market was moving so fast. To be honest, none of us really new what to ask for the first place,” Worrell said.

He added most of the 10 he surveyed thought the excellent farmland “that’s well drained still has a place in the public auction.”

“For anything else, you don’t feel as confident as you did just a short time ago. A lot of this is going to depend on regions,” he said.