Polls, forecasts show District 17 Congressional race remains a tossup

The race between Republican Esther Joy King and Democrat Eric Sorensen for the open 17th District Congressional seat remains tight.

Different pollsters and political forecasters see the race leaning slightly one way or the other, but mostly it remains a tossup.

The race is one among 30-or-so nationwide that could determine who controls the U.S. House after the midterm elections of Nov. 8. A party needs 218 seats to have the majority.

One of the most recent public polls was conducted of 642 voters by Public Policy Polling on Wednesday and Thursday and it showed Sorensen with a 47% to 38% advantage.

The sponsor of the poll was the 314 Action hybrid PAC that promotes electing scientists. It has endorsed Sorensen.

314 Action’s last poll conducted for this race was accurate. In mid-January it showed that Sorensen was poised to win the Democratic primary in June, which he did.

Forecaster Real Clear Politics has not conducted a poll for the 17th District, but showed from its current forecasting model that the race is leaning toward King. Real Clear Politics also has the Republicans with a 218-185 majority with 32 seats in play.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center of Politics categorizes the 17th seat as a tossup.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales updated its nonpartisan analysis of House races on Friday and put the 17th as a tossup.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s forecast has the 17th as a tossup as of Friday.

FiveThirtyEight forecasting ran a simulation Saturday. Out of a 100 possible outcomes, Sorensen won 67 times, King 33 times.

FiveThirtyEight has been running simulations since June 1. On June 15, it had King winning 67 out of 100 times. From July 28 to Aug. 22 the race was neck-and-neck. The forecast has been favoring Sorensen since.

But it should be noted that throughout this period, the popular vote margins have been razor thin on the FiveThirtyEight projections. Saturday’s simulation showed Sorensen’s advantage on the popular vote at 51.5% to 48.5%.

Two TV networks issued poll results on their Sunday news shows projecting control of Congress.

The CBS News YouGov Battleground Tracker sampled 2,253 registered voters between Wednesday and Friday. Its computer model of the U.S. House estimates had a margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats and forecasted Republicans gaining control with a 223-212 majority.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted Sept. 18-21 and sampled 1,006 U.S. Adults. Among registered voters, 47% said they would vote Republican in their House district, 46% said they would vote Democrat. Independents favored Republicans 47% to 42% in Congress.