The amount of cases of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, called B.1.1.7, is doubling at a rate of “of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%,” according to a study posted Sunday to medRxiv, a site that makes available scientific papers before they have been published or peer reviewed.
As of Sunday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 690 cases in 33 states of this variation, which was first discovered in the U.K. last fall and in the U.S. by December.
Illinois had 17 cases of B.1.1.7 as of Sunday and none of the other two variants, the CDC said.
The CDC feels B.1.1.7 may become the dominant strain in the U.S. by March.
By contrast, two other variants – B.1.351 (South Africa variant) and P.1 (Brazil variant) – were identified in only six cases in three states and three cases in two states, respectively.
The virus may eventually have up to 4,000 mutations, but many of these will be insignificant, according to a recent report by Reuters.
Still, these three variants seem to spread quickly and easily, which could lead to more COVID-19 cases and more deaths, the CDC said.
In a recent news release, Edward-Elmhurst Health explained how the variants could cause more cases and deaths:
The B.1.1.7. variant appears to attach itself better to cells and make more copies of itself.
The B.1.351 variant has multiple mutations in the spike protein. Convalescent plasma treatments did not neutralize the virus or stop it from replicating.
The P.1 variant has several mutations that may affect transmissibility and the ability of antibodies to neutralize the virus.
The good news, Edward-Elmhurst Health said, is that infection from COVID-19 or the current vaccines still seem to offer protection against the B.1.1.7. variant, according to the release.
Studies using the blood of patients who had been vaccinated for COVID-19 found that the current mRNA vaccines were effective against the original virus and were able to neutralize the B.1.351 variant 50%, according to the release.
The vaccines protect just as well against B.1.1.7 (U.K. variant), but they also provide protection against the more resistant B.1.351 variant. And it’s likely the vaccines will protect against severe infection from these variant strains.
Moderna also is working on a booster that covers the B.1.351 variant.
But these variations make a compelling argument for vaccinations.
It’s true COVID-19 infection can lead to temporary immunity. But COVID-19 infection also allows for more transmission and gives the virus opportunities to mutate and evolve. This lead to the different strains and a resurgence of reinfections, Edward-Elmhurst Health said.
However, the COVID-19 vaccinations produce an immune response that is greater than natural infection, Edward-Elmhurst Health said.
The result is that the vaccines “prevent symptomatic and severe infection, decrease transmission and decrease the chances for viral evolution,” Edward-Elmhurst Health said.